Fertility and reproductive preferences in post-transitional societies

THE TIMING OF the onset of contemporary fertility transitions and the pace of change during their early phases have been central concerns of researchers and policymakers in recent decades. Demographers and social scientists have studied survey data with detailed information about reproductive behaviors and attitudes of individuals in many countries. This research has provided new insights into the determinants of reproductive behavior and has contributed to the development of increasingly refined and realistic theories of fertility change. Policymakers and program managers in the developing world have been concerned about the contribution of high fertility to rapid population growth and poor reproductive health, and they have focused on implementing effective programs-in practice, mostly family planning programs-to reduce high and unwanted fertility. Until recently, less attention had been given to determinants and consequences of fertility in post-transitional societies. Conventional demographic theories have little to say about the level at which fertility will stabilize at the end of the transition. However, it is usually assumed that population growth in the long run will be near zero, which implies that fertility will on average be close to the replacement level of about 2.1 births per woman (Demeny 1997; Caldwell 1982; Freedman and Berelson 1974). This assumption is, for example, incorporated in past population projections of the United Nations and the World Bank (medium variants). If fertility in contemporary post-transitional societies had indeed leveled off at or near the replacement level, there would have been limited interest in the subject because this would have been expected. However, fertility has dropped below the replacement level-sometimes by a substantial margin-in virtually every population that has moved through the demographic transition. If future fertility remains at these low levels, populations will decline in size and will age rapidly. These demographic developments in