A Satellite-Based Method for National Winter Wheat Yield Estimating in China

Satellite-based models have tremendous potential for monitoring crop production because satellite data can provide temporally and spatially continuous crop growth information at large scale. This study used a satellite-based vegetation production model (i.e., eddy covariance light use efficiency, EC-LUE) to estimate national winter wheat gross primary production, and then combined this model with the harvest index (ratio of aboveground biomass to yield) to convert the estimated winter wheat production to yield. Specifically, considering the spatial differences of the harvest index, we used a cross-validation method to invert the harvest index of winter wheat among counties, municipalities and provinces. Using the field-surveyed and statistical yield data, we evaluated the model performance, and found the model could explain more than 50% of the spatial variations of the yield both in field-surveyed regions and most administrative units. Overall, the mean absolute percentage errors of the yield are less than 20% in most counties, municipalities and provinces, and the mean absolute percentage errors for the production of winter wheat at the national scale is 4.06%. This study demonstrates that a satellite-based model is an alternative method for crop yield estimation on a larger scale.

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