The Next Ten Years in Medicine: Attempt at an Analysis of Factors Determining Medical and Social Development*

The task in front of us is to prognosticate for the next ten years in medicine, say, 1965 to 1975. It has twice previously been my privilege to stick my neck out to answer a similar question, so I may as well try it once more. One of the scientific fields I occasionally work in is epidemiology-in the sense J. N. Morris uses the word. The current fashion in epidemiology is to make prospective studies: to take a roll-call and then look into what is likely to happen to the group ten or twenty years hence. If you prognosticate you are sure to be wrong; if you publish your prophecies you may be called a fool, but an analysis of your errors may nevertheless give some information about the laws that govern Nature's wisdom and the insufficiencies of Man in Society.