Analysis of the effects of ultrafine particulate matter while accounting for human exposure

Particulate matter (PM) has been associated with mortality in several epidemiological studies. The US EPA currently regulates PM(10) and PM(2.5) (mass concentration of particles with diameter less than 10 microm and 2.5 microm, respectively), but it is not clear which size of particles are most responsible for adverse heath outcomes. A current hypothesis is that ultra-fine particles with diameter less than 0.1microm are particularly harmful because their small size allows them to deeply penetrate the lungs. This paper investigates the association between exposure to particles of varying diameter and daily mortality. We propose a new dynamic factor analysis model to relate the ambient concentrations of several sizes of particles with diameters ranging from 0.01 to 0.40 microm with mortality. We introduce a Bayesian model that converts ambient concentrations into simulated personal exposure using the EPA's Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulator, and relates simulated exposure with mortality. Using new data from Fresno, CA, we find that the four-day lag of particles with diameter between 0.02microm and 0.08microm is associated with mortality. This is consistent with the small particles hypothesis.

[1]  M. West,et al.  Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models and Portfolio Allocation , 2000 .

[2]  E. George,et al.  Journal of the American Statistical Association is currently published by American Statistical Association. , 2007 .

[3]  J. Neher,et al.  Health effects of outdoor air pollution. , 1994, American family physician.

[4]  T P Speed,et al.  A score test for the linkage analysis of qualitative and quantitative traits based on identity by descent data from sib-pairs. , 2000, Biostatistics.

[5]  J Pekkanen,et al.  Effects of fine and ultrafine particles on cardiorespiratory symptoms in elderly subjects with coronary heart disease: the ULTRA study. , 2003, American journal of epidemiology.

[6]  Catherine A. Calder,et al.  A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach for Relating PM2.5 Exposure to Cardiovascular Mortality in North Carolina , 2004, Environmental health perspectives.

[7]  J. Xue,et al.  Personal exposure to airborne particles and metals: results from the Particle TEAM study in Riverside, California. , 1996, Journal of exposure analysis and environmental epidemiology.

[8]  Scott L. Zeger,et al.  Air Pollution and Mortality , 2002 .

[9]  J. Burke,et al.  A population exposure model for particulate matter: case study results for PM2.5 in Philadelphia, PA , 2001, Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology.

[10]  Health effects of outdoor air pollution. Part 2. Committee of the Environmental and Occupational Health Assembly of the American Thoracic Society. , 1996, American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine.

[11]  A. Peters,et al.  Daily mortality and particulate matter in different size classes in Erfurt, Germany , 2007, Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology.

[12]  W G Kreyling,et al.  Daily mortality and fine and ultrafine particles in Erfurt, Germany part I: role of particle number and particle mass. , 2000, Research report.

[13]  D Hémon,et al.  Comparison of relative risks obtained in ecological and individual studies: some methodological considerations. , 1987, International journal of epidemiology.

[14]  Michael A. West,et al.  BAYESIAN MODEL ASSESSMENT IN FACTOR ANALYSIS , 2004 .

[15]  W. C. Elliott,et al.  Coronary Heart Disease , 2002, Encyclopedia of Behavioral Medicine.

[16]  H. Macfarland,et al.  Inhalation toxicology. , 1975, Journal - Association of Official Analytical Chemists.

[17]  Rebecca Bascom,et al.  Health effects of outdoor air pollution , 1996 .

[18]  M. Fuentes,et al.  Threshold Dependence of Mortality Effects for Fine and Coarse Particles in Phoenix, Arizona , 2000, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association.

[19]  Melanie M Wall,et al.  Generalized common spatial factor model. , 2003, Biostatistics.

[20]  J. Schwartz,et al.  Air pollution and daily mortality: a review and meta analysis. , 1994, Environmental research.

[21]  Bert Brunekreef,et al.  Particulate Air Pollution and Risk of ST-Segment Depression During Repeated Submaximal Exercise Tests Among Subjects With Coronary Heart Disease: The Exposure and Risk Assessment for Fine and Ultrafine Particles in Ambient Air (ULTRA) Study , 2002, Circulation.

[22]  O. Aguilar,et al.  Bayesian Inference on Latent Structure in Time Series , 1998 .

[23]  D. Thomas,et al.  Exposure measurement error: influence on exposure-disease. Relationships and methods of correction. , 1993, Annual review of public health.

[24]  Jon Wakefield,et al.  Health-exposure modeling and the ecological fallacy. , 2005, Biostatistics.

[25]  A. Peters,et al.  Daily variation in fine and ultrafine particulate air pollution and urinary concentrations of lung Clara cell protein CC16 , 2004, Occupational and Environmental Medicine.

[26]  J. Besag,et al.  Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics , 1991 .

[27]  R. Magno,et al.  Coronary heart disease , 1957 .

[28]  David E. Burmaster,et al.  Residential Air Exchange Rates in the United States: Empirical and Estimated Parametric Distributions by Season and Climatic Region , 1995 .

[29]  Bradley P. Carlin,et al.  Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit , 2002 .

[30]  D. Catelan,et al.  Bayesian Ecological Regression with Latent Factors: Atmospheric Pollutants Emissions and Mortality for Lung Cancer , 2005, Environmental and Ecological Statistics.

[31]  D. Dockery,et al.  An association between air pollution and mortality in six U.S. cities. , 1993, The New England journal of medicine.

[32]  James S Hodges,et al.  Generalized spatial structural equation models. , 2005, Biostatistics.

[33]  Joel Schwartz,et al.  REVIEW OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL EVIDENCE OF HEALTH EFFECTS OF PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION , 1995 .

[34]  Michael A. West,et al.  Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models (2nd edn) , 1997, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[35]  F P Wheeler,et al.  Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models (2nd edn) , 1998, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[36]  P. Lawless,et al.  Characterization of Indoor-Outdoor Aerosol Concentration Relationships during the Fresno PM Exposure Studies , 2001 .