Jointly Modeling Heterogeneous Student Behaviors and Interactions among Multiple Prediction Tasks

Prediction tasks about students have practical significance for both student and college. Making multiple predictions about students is an important part of a smart campus. For instance, predicting whether a student will fail to graduate can alert the student affairs office to take predictive measures to help the student improve his/her academic performance. With the development of information technology in colleges, we can collect digital footprints that encode heterogeneous behaviors continuously. In this article, we focus on modeling heterogeneous behaviors and making multiple predictions together, since some prediction tasks are related and learning the model for a specific task may have the data sparsity problem. To this end, we propose a variant of Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and a soft-attention mechanism. The proposed LSTM is able to learn the student profile-aware representation from heterogeneous behavior sequences. The proposed soft-attention mechanism can dynamically learn different importance degrees of different days for every student. In this way, heterogeneous behaviors can be well modeled. In order to model interactions among multiple prediction tasks, we propose a co-attention mechanism based unit. With the help of the stacked units, we can explicitly control the knowledge transfer among multiple tasks. We design three motivating behavior prediction tasks based on a real-world dataset collected from a college. Qualitative and quantitative experiments on the three prediction tasks have demonstrated the effectiveness of our model.

[1]  Shou-De Lin,et al.  Feature Engineering and Classifier Ensemble for KDD Cup 2010 , 2010, KDD 2010.

[2]  Dit-Yan Yeung,et al.  Temporal Models for Predicting Student Dropout in Massive Open Online Courses , 2015, 2015 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshop (ICDMW).

[3]  Tsuyoshi Usagawa,et al.  An Artificial Neural Network Based Early Prediction of Failure-Prone Students in Blended Learning Course , 2019, iJET.

[4]  Lei Li,et al.  Application of BP neural network to prediction of library circulation , 2012, 2012 IEEE 11th International Conference on Cognitive Informatics and Cognitive Computing.

[5]  Luis Cano,et al.  A Case Study of Library Data Management: A New Method to Analyze Borrowing Behavior , 2018, SIMBig.

[6]  Bin Guo,et al.  Inferring Lifetime Status of Point-of-Interest , 2020, ACM Trans. Knowl. Discov. Data.

[7]  Yanan Xu,et al.  Learning from Heterogeneous Student Behaviors for Multiple Prediction Tasks , 2020, DASFAA.

[8]  Edin Osmanbegović,et al.  DATA MINING APPROACH FOR PREDICTING STUDENT PERFORMANCE , 2012 .

[9]  Deng Cai,et al.  What to Do Next: Modeling User Behaviors by Time-LSTM , 2017, IJCAI.

[10]  Guangzhong Sun,et al.  Students performance modeling based on behavior pattern , 2018, J. Ambient Intell. Humaniz. Comput..

[11]  Jason Weston,et al.  A unified architecture for natural language processing: deep neural networks with multitask learning , 2008, ICML '08.

[12]  Mei Tian Application of Chaotic Time Series Prediction in Forecasting of Library Borrowing Flow , 2011, 2011 International Conference on Internet Computing and Information Services.

[13]  Jürgen Schmidhuber,et al.  Long Short-Term Memory , 1997, Neural Computation.

[14]  Rich Caruana,et al.  Multitask Learning , 1998, Encyclopedia of Machine Learning and Data Mining.

[15]  Alexandros Karatzoglou,et al.  Session-based Recommendations with Recurrent Neural Networks , 2015, ICLR.

[16]  W. F. Punch,et al.  Predicting student performance: an application of data mining methods with an educational Web-based system , 2003, 33rd Annual Frontiers in Education, 2003. FIE 2003..

[17]  Hui Xiong,et al.  Discovery of College Students in Financial Hardship , 2015, 2015 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining.

[18]  Nitish Srivastava,et al.  Dropout: a simple way to prevent neural networks from overfitting , 2014, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[19]  Mung Chiang,et al.  MOOC performance prediction via clickstream data and social learning networks , 2015, 2015 IEEE Conference on Computer Communications (INFOCOM).

[20]  Jiasen Lu,et al.  Hierarchical Question-Image Co-Attention for Visual Question Answering , 2016, NIPS.

[21]  Soumya K. Ghosh,et al.  Data mining based analysis to explore the effect of teaching on student performance , 2018, Education and Information Technologies.

[22]  Soumya K. Ghosh,et al.  Student performance analysis and prediction in classroom learning: A review of educational data mining studies , 2020, Education and Information Technologies.

[23]  Han Su,et al.  Predicting Academic Performance via Semi-supervised Learning with Constructed Campus Social Network , 2017, DASFAA.

[24]  Massimiliano Pontil,et al.  Multi-task Learning , 2020, Transfer Learning.

[25]  Yoshua Bengio,et al.  Neural Machine Translation by Jointly Learning to Align and Translate , 2014, ICLR.

[26]  Quoc V. Le,et al.  Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks , 2014, NIPS.

[27]  Rama Chellappa,et al.  HyperFace: A Deep Multi-Task Learning Framework for Face Detection, Landmark Localization, Pose Estimation, and Gender Recognition , 2019, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[28]  Sebastián Ventura,et al.  Predicting students' final performance from participation in on-line discussion forums , 2013, Comput. Educ..

[29]  Wahidah Husain,et al.  A Review on Predicting Student's Performance Using Data Mining Techniques , 2015 .

[30]  Huzefa Rangwala,et al.  Next-term student grade prediction , 2015, 2015 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data).

[31]  Eva Lucrecia Gibaja Galindo,et al.  Predicting students' marks from Moodle logs using neural network models , 2006 .

[32]  Neil T. Heffernan,et al.  Addressing the assessment challenge with an online system that tutors as it assesses , 2009, User Modeling and User-Adapted Interaction.

[33]  Yoshua Bengio,et al.  Empirical Evaluation of Gated Recurrent Neural Networks on Sequence Modeling , 2014, ArXiv.

[34]  Xia Zhou,et al.  SmartGPA: how smartphones can assess and predict academic performance of college students , 2015, GETMBL.

[35]  Jian Sun,et al.  Delving Deep into Rectifiers: Surpassing Human-Level Performance on ImageNet Classification , 2015, 2015 IEEE International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV).

[36]  J. Schmidhuber,et al.  Framewise phoneme classification with bidirectional LSTM networks , 2005, Proceedings. 2005 IEEE International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, 2005..

[37]  W. Price,et al.  Privacy in the age of medical big data , 2019, Nature Medicine.

[38]  Sebastián Ventura,et al.  Classification via clustering for predicting final marks starting from the student participation in Forums , 2012, EDM.

[39]  Mihaela van der Schaar,et al.  Progressive Prediction of Student Performance in College Programs , 2017, AAAI.

[40]  Bin Li,et al.  Extracting social and community intelligence from digital footprints , 2012, Journal of Ambient Intelligence and Humanized Computing.

[41]  Hung-Chang Liao,et al.  Data mining for adaptive learning in a TESL-based e-learning system , 2011, Expert Syst. Appl..

[42]  Kaushlendra Kumar,et al.  Improving efficacy of library Services: ARIMA modelling for predicting book borrowing for optimizing resource utilization , 2016 .

[43]  Geoffrey E. Hinton,et al.  Visualizing Data using t-SNE , 2008 .

[44]  Jian Sun,et al.  Instance-Aware Semantic Segmentation via Multi-task Network Cascades , 2015, 2016 IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR).

[45]  Jimmy Ba,et al.  Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization , 2014, ICLR.

[46]  Mung Chiang,et al.  Early Detection Prediction of Learning Outcomes in Online Short-Courses via Learning Behaviors , 2019, IEEE Transactions on Learning Technologies.

[47]  Nguyen Thai Nghe,et al.  A comparative analysis of techniques for predicting academic performance , 2007, 2007 37th Annual Frontiers In Education Conference - Global Engineering: Knowledge Without Borders, Opportunities Without Passports.

[48]  Hannu Toivonen,et al.  Predicting and preventing student failure - using the k-nearest neighbour method to predict student performance in an online course environment , 2010, Int. J. Learn. Technol..