Reliability Assessment of the Water Supply Systems under Uncertain Future Extreme Climate Conditions

AbstractIncrease in global mean temperature and changes in rainfall amount, pattern, and distribution over the world are all indicative of climate change events. These changes alter the hydroclimatic condition of regions as well as the availability of water resources. In this study, the data generated by 14 general circulation models (GCMs) developed under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2, and B2 are downscaled and utilized to evaluate climate change impact on the hydroclimatic system of the Karaj River basin located in central Iran. The precipitation and temperature of the study region are downscaled using the change factor approach (CFA). The study analyzes future climate data, extreme changes of future climatic conditions of precipitation, and temperature. The Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model developed by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) is used to simulate streamflow under extreme climate change conditions. Two different sources ...

[1]  T. Wigley,et al.  Obtaining sub-grid-scale information from coarse-resolution general circulation model output , 1990 .

[2]  J. Harlin,et al.  Parameter uncertainty and simulation of design floods in Sweden , 1992 .

[3]  V. Singh,et al.  Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology , 1995 .

[4]  Ramakrishna R. Nemani,et al.  The VEMAP integrated database for modelling United States ecosystem/vegetation sensitivity to climate change , 1995 .

[5]  D. B. Boorman,et al.  RECOGNISING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUANTIFICATION OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE , 1997 .

[6]  J. Forrester.  Industrial Dynamics , 1997 .

[7]  Jan Seibert,et al.  Estimation of Parameter Uncertainty in the HBV Model , 1997 .

[8]  Slobodan P. Simonovic,et al.  A new modeling approach for water resources policy analysis , 1999 .

[9]  Jan Seibert,et al.  Regionalisation of parameters for a conceptual rainfall-runoff model , 1999 .

[10]  Slobodan P. Simonovic,et al.  SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING OF RESERVOIR OPERATIONS FOR FLOOD MANAGEMENT , 2000 .

[11]  M. Rummukainen,et al.  Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling , 2001 .

[12]  Dingfang Li,et al.  A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China , 2002 .

[13]  K. Stave.  A system dynamics model to facilitate public understanding of water management options in Las Vegas, Nevada. , 2003, Journal of environmental management.

[14]  P. Whetton,et al.  Guidelines for Use of Climate Scenarios Developed from Statistical Downscaling Methods , 2004 .

[15]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin , 2004 .

[16]  R. Wilby,et al.  A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods: impacts on low flows in the River Thames, United Kingdom , 2005 .

[17]  M. J. Booij,et al.  Impact of climate change on river flooding assessed with different spatial model resolutions , 2005 .

[18]  R. Fealy,et al.  Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Supply and Flood Hazard in Ireland Using Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modelling Techniques , 2006 .

[19]  X. Chen,et al.  Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China , 2007 .

[20]  Vijay P. Singh,et al.  Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin , 2007 .

[21]  S. Steele‐Dunne,et al.  The impacts of climate change on hydrology in Ireland , 2008 .

[22]  Amvrossios C. Bagtzoglou,et al.  NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE Investigating Spatial Downscaling of Satellite Rainfall Data for Streamflow Simulation in a Medium-Sized Basin , 2009 .

[23]  Kirk R. Klausmeyer,et al.  Climate Change, Habitat Loss, Protected Areas and the Climate Adaptation Potential of Species in Mediterranean Ecosystems Worldwide , 2009, PloS one.

[24]  Gary Brierley,et al.  The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Water Resources Management , 2009 .

[25]  W. Landman.  Climate change 2007: the physical science basis , 2010 .

[26]  Ilyas Masih,et al.  Regionalization of a conceptual rainfall–runoff model based on similarity of the flow duration curve: A case study from the semi-arid Karkheh basin, Iran , 2010 .

[27]  Anamika Arora,et al.  Climate change impact assessment of water resources of India , 2011 .

[28]  P. Samuelsson,et al.  Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin , 2011 .

[29]  Mohammad Karamouz,et al.  Development of a Reliability Based Dynamic Model of Urban Water Supply System: A Case Study , 2012 .