Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences

Climate scientists have demonstrated that a substantial fraction of the probability of numerous recent extreme events may be attributed to human-induced climate change. However, it is likely that for temperature extremes occurring over previous decades a fraction of their probability was attributable to anthropogenic influences. We identify the first record-breaking warm summers and years for which a discernible contribution can be attributed to human influence. We find a significant human contribution to the probability of record-breaking global temperature events as early as the 1930s. Since then, all the last 16 record-breaking hot years globally had an anthropogenic contribution to their probability of occurrence. Aerosol-induced cooling delays the timing of a significant human contribution to record-breaking events in some regions. Without human-induced climate change recent hot summers and years would be very unlikely to have occurred.

[1]  D. Karoly,et al.  Anthropogenic contributions to Australia's record summer temperatures of 2013 , 2013 .

[2]  D. Parker,et al.  A new daily central England temperature series, 1772–1991 , 1992 .

[3]  M. Allen.  Do-it-yourself climate prediction , 1999, Nature.

[4]  H. V. D. Dool,et al.  A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948-present , 2008 .

[5]  Matz A. Haugen,et al.  17. Severe precipitation in Northern India in June 2013: Causes, historical context, and changes in probability , 2014 .

[6]  R. Quentin Grafton,et al.  global surface temperature , 2012 .

[7]  Thomas C. Peterson,et al.  Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective , 2015 .

[8]  D. Jones,et al.  High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia , 2009 .

[9]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Multimodel Detection and Attribution of Extreme Temperature Changes , 2013 .

[10]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Detectable Changes in the Frequency of Temperature Extremes , 2013 .

[11]  A. Kitoh,et al.  APHRODITE: Constructing a Long-Term Daily Gridded Precipitation Dataset for Asia Based on a Dense Network of Rain Gauges , 2012 .

[12]  P. Gibson,et al.  Increased Risk of the 2014 Australian May Heatwave Due to Anthropogenic Activity , 2015 .

[13]  E. Fischer,et al.  The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes , 2015 .

[14]  P. Stott,et al.  Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 , 2004, Nature.

[15]  D. Karoly,et al.  Limited evidence of anthropogenic influence on the 2011-12 Extreme Rainfall over Southeast Australia , 2013 .

[16]  R. Seager,et al.  Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014 , 2015 .

[17]  P. Stott,et al.  Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000 , 2011, Nature.

[18]  Yeon‐Hee Kim,et al.  Assessing Human contribution to the summer 2013 Korean heat wave , 2014 .

[19]  E. Fischer,et al.  Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes , 2015 .

[20]  P. Stott,et al.  Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave , 2015 .

[21]  Thomas C. Peterson,et al.  Editorial and Production Team , 2023, The Toro Historical Review.

[22]  Stephanie C. Herring,et al.  Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective , 2014 .

[23]  Myles Allen,et al.  Liability for climate change , 2003, Nature.

[24]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Attribution of extreme temperature changes during 1951–2010 , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[25]  D. Karoly,et al.  Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences , 2015 .

[26]  P. Jones,et al.  A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006 , 2008 .

[27]  C. Folland,et al.  A NEW DAILY CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURE SERIES , 1992 .

[28]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[29]  J. Hansen,et al.  GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE , 2010 .

[30]  Thomas C. Peterson,et al.  Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective , 2015 .

[31]  C. Long,et al.  From Dimming to Brightening: Decadal Changes in Solar Radiation at Earth's Surface , 2005, Science.

[32]  D. Karoly,et al.  CLIMATE CHANGE TURNS AUSTRALIA'S 2013 BIG DRY INTO A YEAR OF RECORD-BREAKING HEAT , 2014 .