EXPECTED POWER SYSTEM PRODUCTION COSTS USING LARGE DEVIATION AND MIXTURE OF NORMALS APPROXIMATIONS

Abstract This paper proposes a possible enhancement to the computational performance of the large deviation method for determining expected system production costs. With the use of a mixed normal distribution to approximate the initial load duration curve, a faster algorithm which results in considerable amount of savings in computation time is developed. The proposed method is tested using a synthetic system with two different load duration curves and the results are compared to several other approximation methods. Depending on the accuracy with which a mixture of normals can be obtained to represent the load duration curve, the modified large deviation approximation method is comparable in speed and accuracy to the method of cumulants.