The old-age security motive for fertility.

The conditions under which the old-age security motive could be expected to be significant for fertility are described. Such conditions are likely to prevail in rural areas of developing countries and especially among women. Empirical studies on the subject are evaluated and the inconclusive and contradictory nature of the findings are attributed to failures to select appropriate samples and variables. Most findings derive from studies only marginally concerned with the old-age security motive for fertility. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research. Some of the earlier studies found surprisingly little or no relation between the old-age pension participation variables and various measures of fertility especially in developing countries. More recent studies have generally found significant negative relationships. Entwisle and Winegarden obtained evidence of a reinforcing feedback from low fertility to the expansion of the depth and breadth of coverage of participation in old-age security programs. A study done by DeVany and Sanchez concluded that the land-retention and other benefits of children to their parents are greater for those living on land which cannot be bought or sold than for those on privately owned land. Nugent and Gillaspy found that fertility changes between 1960 and 1970 across counties were negatively related to the size of the social security proxy variable. Cains 1981 study showed that the insecurity characterizing rural areas of developing countries is not limited to old age and disability but also includes calamitous events whose presence contribute to high fertility. The 1980 study of Vlassoff and Vlassoff concluded that old-age security was unimportant as a motive for fertility. There is a need for additional more systematic and more special-purpose empirical studies to investigate the impact of old-age security on fertility. Studies should be conducted in rural areas of developing countries where the old-age pension motive is expected to be strong. The sample size should be large enough to afford the opportunity to isolate the old-age pension affects from the effects of other variables and data collection should be repeated at various times. (summaries in ENG FRE SPA)