Peak phosphorus - Implications for soil productivity and global food security

Phosphorus is a key element in food production, but is a non-renewable resource. Recent estimates suggest that global production of P fertilizers will peak in 2033 and will be one third of that peak level by the end of the 21 st century. Population and income growth will increase demand for food, and especially animal protein, the production of which will accelerate the reduced availability of P and consequential rising fertilizer prices. The global distribution of current P fertilizer use divides countries into the ‘haves’ which in many cases face severe pollution problems from excess P, and the ‘have-nots’ in which low input use annually drains soil P reserves. Coping strategies include improvements in the efficiency of fertilizer P manufacture and use, and recycling of P in liquid and solid wastes. The latter approach offers win-win solutions by reducing the environmental pollution of water in highly populated areas. Future utilisation of scarce P reserves requires policy decisions that take account of equity, productivity, environmental and trade considerations.