Research, part of a Special Feature on A Framework for Analyzing, Comparing, and Diagnosing Social-Ecological Systems Application of the SES Framework for Model-based Analysis of the Dynamics of Social-Ecological Systems

Social-ecological systems (SES) are dynamic systems that continuously change in response to internal or external pressures. A better understanding of the interactions of the social and ecological systems that drive those dynamics is crucial for the development of sustainable management strategies. Dynamic models can serve as tools to explore social-ecological interactions; however, the complexity of the studied systems and the need to integrate knowledge, theories, and approaches from different disciplines pose considerable challenges for their development. We assess the potential of Ostrom's general SES framework (SESF) to guide a systematic and transparent process of model development in light of these difficulties. We develop a stepwise procedure for applying SESF to identify variables and their relationships relevant for an analysis of the SES. In doing so we demonstrate how the hierarchy of concepts in SESF and the identification of social-ecological processes using the newly introduced process relationships can help to unpack the system in a systematic and transparent way. We test the procedure by applying it to develop a dynamic model of decision making in the management of recreational fisheries. The added value of the common framework lies in the guidance it provides for (1) a structured approach to identifying major variables and the level of detail needed, and (2) a procedure that enhances model transparency by making explicit underlying assumptions and choices made when selecting variables and their interactions as well as the theories or empirical evidence on which they are based. Both aspects are of great relevance when dealing with the complexity of SES and integrating conceptual backgrounds from different disciplines. We discuss the advantages and difficulties of the application of SESF for model development, and contribute to its further refinement.

[1]  L. Hunt Recreational Fishing Site Choice Models: Insights and Future Opportunities , 2005 .

[2]  E. Ostrom A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability of Social-Ecological Systems , 2009, Science.

[3]  W. Ricker Stock and Recruitment , 1954 .

[4]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Early-warning signals for critical transitions , 2009, Nature.

[5]  K. Lorenzen,et al.  Density-dependent growth as a key mechanism in the regulation of fish populations: evidence from among-population comparisons , 2002, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[6]  R. Arlinghaus,et al.  Determinants of management preferences of recreational anglers in Germany: Habitat management versus fish stocking , 2005 .

[7]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[8]  Birgit Müller,et al.  A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models , 2006 .

[9]  K. Lorenzen Allometry of natural mortality as a basis for assessing optimal release size in fish-stocking programmes , 2000 .

[10]  C. Walters,et al.  Quantitative fisheries stock assessment: Choice, dynamics and uncertainty , 2004, Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries.

[11]  Birgit Müller,et al.  NEW HORIZONS FOR MANAGING THE ENVIRONMENT: A REVIEW OF COUPLED SOCIAL‐ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS MODELING , 2012 .

[12]  Stefan Baumgärtner,et al.  Relating the Philosophy and Practice of Ecological Economics: The Role of Concepts, Models, and Case Studies in Inter- and Transdisciplinary Sustainability Research , 2008 .

[13]  David C. Smith,et al.  Human behaviour: the key source of uncertainty in fisheries management , 2011 .

[14]  K. Lorenzen,et al.  Responsible Approach to Marine Stock Enhancement: An Update , 2010 .

[15]  R. Norgaard Development betrayed: the end of progress and a coevolutionary revisioning of the future. , 1994 .

[16]  Volker Grimm,et al.  Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future. , 2010, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[17]  Martin D. Smith,et al.  Economic impacts of marine reserves: the importance of spatial behavior , 2003 .

[18]  E. Ostrom Understanding Institutional Diversity , 2005 .

[19]  M. Diekmann,et al.  Benefits of repeated stocking with adult, hatchery‐reared brown trout, Salmo trutta, to recreational fisheries? , 2007 .

[20]  Eli P. Fenichel,et al.  Managing ecological thresholds in coupled environmental–human systems , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[21]  U. Dieckmann,et al.  Diversity and complexity of angler behaviour drive socially optimal input and output regulations in a bioeconomic recreational-fisheries model , 2010 .

[22]  Ransom A. Myers,et al.  Is Juvenile Natural Mortality in Marine Demersal Fish Variable , 1993 .

[23]  M. Rogers,et al.  A simulation model to explore the relative value of stock enhancement versus harvest regulations for fishery sustainability , 2010 .

[24]  Steven M. Manson,et al.  Case studies, cross-site comparisons, and the challenge of generalization: comparing agent-based models of land-use change in frontier regions , 2008, Journal of land use science.

[25]  Stephen R. Carpenter,et al.  Spatial complexity, resilience and policy diversity: fishing on lake-rich landscapes , 2004 .

[26]  H. Simon,et al.  Models of Man. , 1957 .

[27]  Claudia R. Binder,et al.  Towards an Improved Understanding of Farmers' Behaviour: The Integrative Agent-Centred (IAC) Framework , 2010 .

[28]  P. Mace,et al.  Relationships between Common Biological Reference Points Used as Thresholds and Targets of Fisheries Management Strategies , 1994 .

[29]  Romina Martin,et al.  Describing human decisions in agent-based models - ODD + D, an extension of the ODD protocol , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[30]  C. S. Holling,et al.  Resilience and adaptive cycles , 2002 .

[31]  John M. Anderies,et al.  Insight, part of a Special Feature on Exploring Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems Fifteen Weddings and a Funeral: Case Studies and Resilience- based Management , 2006 .

[32]  Jeff Rothenberg,et al.  The nature of modeling , 1989 .

[33]  E. Ostrom,et al.  Insight, part of a Special Feature on A Framework for Analyzing, Comparing, and Diagnosing Social-Ecological Systems Social-ecological system framework: initial changes and continuing challenges , 2014 .

[34]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Ten iterative steps in development and evaluation of environmental models , 2006, Environ. Model. Softw..

[35]  Sigrid Stagl,et al.  See Blockindiscussions, Blockinstats, Blockinand Blockinauthor Blockinprofiles Blockinfor Blockinthis Blockinpublication Managing Blockincomplex Blockinadaptive Blockinsystems Blockin— Blockina Blockinco- Evolutionary Blockinperspective Blockinon Blockinnatural Blockinresource Management , 2022 .

[36]  E. Ostrom A diagnostic approach for going beyond panaceas , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[37]  K. Lorenzen Population dynamics and potential of fisheries stock enhancement: practical theory for assessment and policy analysis , 2005, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[38]  Richard S. Sutton,et al.  Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction , 1998, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks.

[39]  M. Schlüter,et al.  Enhancing the Ostrom social-ecological system framework through formalization , 2014 .

[40]  Robert Arlinghaus,et al.  Social-ecological interactions, management panaceas, and the future of wild fish populations , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[41]  C. Folke,et al.  Linking Social and Ecological Systems: Management Practices and Social Mechanisms for Building Resilience , 1998 .

[42]  I. Cowx An appraisal of stocking strategies in the light of developing country constraints , 1999 .

[43]  P. Jeffrey,et al.  Description, diagnosis, prescription: a critique of the application of co-evolutionary models to natural resource management , 2006, Environmental Conservation.

[44]  J. Gary Polhill,et al.  Ontologies for transparent integrated human-natural system modelling , 2009, Landscape Ecology.

[45]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Science for managing ecosystem services: Beyond the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.