Comparison of Traditional and Bayesian Calibration Techniques for Gray-Box Modeling

AbstractBayesian and nonlinear least-squares methods of calibration were evaluated and compared for gray-box modeling of a retail building. Gray-box model calibration is one form of system identification and is examined here with perturbations to the simple yet popular European Committee for Standardization (CEN)-ISO thermal network model. The primary objective was to understand whether the computational expense of probabilistic Bayesian techniques is required to provide robustness to signal noise, specifically with regard to lower dimensional problems (physical or semiphysical), where model calibration is preferred over uncertainty quantification. The Bayesian approach allows parameter interactions and trade-offs to be revealed, one form of sensitivity analysis, but its full power for uncertainty quantification cannot be harnessed with gray-box or other simplified models. Surrogate data from a detailed building energy simulation program were used to ensure command over latent variables, whereas a range o...