A group decision method based on prospect theory for emergency situations

Abstract Urgent and critical situations or so-called emergency events, such as terrorist attacks and natural disasters, often require crucial decisions. When an emergency event occurs, emergency decision making plays an important role in dealing with it, and hence, its importance nowadays is increasing. In the real world, it is difficult for only one decision maker to take a comprehensive decision for coping with an emergency event. Consequently, many practical emergency problems are often characterized by a group emergency decision making (GEDM) scheme. Different studies show that human beings are usually bounded rational under risk and uncertainty, and their psychological behavior is very important in the decision-making process. However, such behavior is neglected in current GEDM studies. Therefore, this study proposes a novel GEDM method that considers experts’ psychological behavior in the GEDM process. The method is then applied to a case study and compared with other related approaches. Finally, discussions are presented to illustrate the novelty, feasibility, and validity of the proposed GEDM method, showing the importance of experts’ psychological behavior in GEDM.

[1]  Li Jinlong,et al.  The group decision-making rules based on rough sets on large scale engineering emergency☆ , 2012 .

[2]  Mohammed Abdellaoui,et al.  Loss Aversion Under Prospect Theory: A Parameter-Free Measurement , 2007, Manag. Sci..

[3]  Ma Jian.  Multi-objective Group Decision Making for Job Shop Scheduling Problem , 2007 .

[4]  Xiao Zhang,et al.  Multiple attribute decision making considering aspiration-levels: A method based on prospect theory , 2013, Comput. Ind. Eng..

[5]  Xiaohong Chen,et al.  Consensus model for multi-criteria large-group emergency decision making considering non-cooperative behaviors and minority opinions , 2015, Decis. Support Syst..

[6]  Xiao-hong Chen,et al.  A dynamical consensus method based on exit-delegation mechanism for large group emergency decision making , 2015, Knowl. Based Syst..

[7]  Shiquan Zhong,et al.  Prospect theory based estimation of drivers' risk attitudes in route choice behaviors. , 2014, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[8]  Witold Pedrycz,et al.  An extended TODIM multi-criteria group decision making method for green supplier selection in interval type-2 fuzzy environment , 2017, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[9]  W. Brouwer,et al.  Prospect theory in the health domain : A quantitative assessment 1 , 2013 .

[10]  Abbas Seifi,et al.  A humanitarian logistics model for disaster relief operation considering network failure and standard relief time: A case study on San Francisco district , 2015 .

[11]  Yao Zhang,et al.  Risk decision analysis in emergency response: A method based on cumulative prospect theory , 2014, Comput. Oper. Res..

[12]  Khaled A El-Rayes,et al.  Parallel Genetic Algorithms for Optimizing Resource Utilization in Large-Scale Construction Projects , 2006 .

[13]  Luis Martínez-López,et al.  Low-dimensional Visualization of Experts' Preferences in Urgent Group Decision Making under Uncertainty , 2014, ICCS.

[14]  S. Afshin Mansouri,et al.  Humanitarian logistics network design under mixed uncertainty , 2016, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[15]  Manoj Kumar Tiwari,et al.  Improved Decision Neural Network (IDNN) based consensus method to solve a multi-objective group decision making problem , 2007, Adv. Eng. Informatics.

[16]  M. Quaddus,et al.  Supply chain risk management (SCRM): a case study on the automotive and electronic industries in Brazil , 2009 .

[17]  Liang Xiaowei.  Decision-making Method of Highway Network Planning based on Prospect Theory , 2013 .

[18]  Kenneth O. May,et al.  A Set of Independent Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Simple Majority Decision , 1952 .

[19]  Luis Martínez-López,et al.  An Overview on Fuzzy Modelling of Complex Linguistic Preferences in Decision Making , 2016, Int. J. Comput. Intell. Syst..

[20]  Ying-Ming Wang,et al.  A prospect theory-based interval dynamic reference point method for emergency decision making , 2015, Expert Syst. Appl..

[21]  J. L. Pinto,et al.  An elicitation of utility for quality of life under prospect theory. , 2016, Journal of health economics.

[22]  G. V. D. Kuilen,et al.  A parameter-free analysis of the utility of money for the general population under prospect theory , 2009 .

[23]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect theory: analysis of decision under risk , 1979 .

[24]  A. Tversky,et al.  Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model , 1991 .

[25]  A. Tversky,et al.  Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty , 1992 .

[26]  Shen Rong-jian,et al.  Risk decision analysis method for emergency response based on prospect theory , 2012 .

[27]  Francisco Chiclana,et al.  Linguistic majorities with difference in support , 2014, Appl. Soft Comput..

[28]  Reza Zanjirani Farahani,et al.  Fuzzy AHP to determine the relative weights of evaluation criteria and Fuzzy TOPSIS to rank the alternatives , 2010, Appl. Soft Comput..

[29]  Hong You,et al.  Multi-stage ranking of emergency technology alternatives for water source pollution accidents using a fuzzy group decision making tool. , 2016, Journal of hazardous materials.

[30]  Francisco Herrera,et al.  A Sequential Selection Process in Group Decision Making with a Linguistic Assessment Approach , 1995, Inf. Sci..

[31]  Kin Keung Lai,et al.  A distance-based group decision-making methodology for multi-person multi-criteria emergency decision support , 2011, Decis. Support Syst..

[32]  Wang Liang,et al.  Dynamic adjusting method of emergency alternatives based on prospect theory , 2016 .

[33]  R. Sugden,et al.  Third-generation prospect theory , 2008 .

[34]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk — Source link , 2007 .

[35]  P. Cochat,et al.  Et al , 2008, Archives de pediatrie : organe officiel de la Societe francaise de pediatrie.

[36]  Juan Carlos Augusto,et al.  A group decision making model for partially ordered preference under uncertainty , 2015, Inf. Fusion.

[37]  Ahmet Satir,et al.  Supply chain risk management – I: Conceptualization, framework and planning process , 2012, Risk Management.

[38]  W. Drobetz,et al.  Portfolio insurance and prospect theory investors: Popularity and optimal design of capital protected financial products , 2011 .

[39]  Yejun Xu,et al.  A conflict-eliminating approach for emergency group decision of unconventional incidents , 2015, Knowl. Based Syst..

[40]  M. Best,et al.  Prospect theory and portfolio selection , 2016 .

[41]  Kouichi Taji,et al.  Group decision support for hazards planning and emergency management: A Group Analytic Network Process (GANP) approach , 2007, Math. Comput. Model..

[42]  Yang Liu,et al.  An Approach to Solve Group-Decision-Making Problems With Ordinal Interval Numbers , 2010, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part B (Cybernetics).

[43]  Luis Martínez-López,et al.  An analysis of symbolic linguistic computing models in decision making , 2013, Int. J. Gen. Syst..

[44]  Wu Chong,et al.  Unconventional Emergency Management Based on Intelligent Group Decision-making Methodology , 2012 .

[45]  John Cosgrave,et al.  Decision making in emergencies , 1996 .

[46]  Kwai-Sang Chin,et al.  A group decision making model considering both the additive consistency and group consensus of intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations , 2016, Comput. Ind. Eng..

[47]  Jian Ma,et al.  A subjective and objective integrated approach to determine attribute weights , 1999, Eur. J. Oper. Res..