Nonuniform seismic slip rates along the Middle America Trench

Revised estimates of seismic slip rates along the Middle America Trench are lower on the average than plate convergence rates but match them locally (for example, Oaxaca). Along the Cocos-North American plate boundary this can be explained by nonuniformities in slip at points of aseismic ridge or fracture zone subduction. For at least 81 yr (and possibly several hundred years), no major (M/sub s/> or =7.5) shallow earthquake is known to have occurred near the Orozco Fracture Zone and Tehuantepec Ridge areas. Compared with the average recurrence periods for large earthquakes (33 +- 8 yr since 1898 and 35 +- 24 yr between 1542 and 1979), this suggests that either a large (M> or =8.4) event may be anticipated at such locations, or that these are points of aseismic subduction. Large coastal terraces and evidence suggesting tectonic uplift are found onshore near the Orozco Fracture zone. The larger discrepancy between plate convergence and seismic slip rates along the Cocos-Carribbean plate boundary is more likely due to decoupling and downbending of the subducted plate. We used the limited statistical evidence available to characterize both spatial and temporal deficiencies in recent seismic slip. The observations appear consistent with a possible forthcoming episodemore » of more intense seismic activity. Based on a series of comparisons with carefully delineated aftershock zones, we conclude that the zones of anomalous seismic activity can be indentified by a systematic, automated analysis of the worldwide earthquake catalog (m/sub b/> or =4).« less

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