Volcanic hazard assessment for Ruapehu composite volcano, taupo volcanic zone, New Zealand

Ruapehu is a very active andesitic composite volcano which has erupted five times in the past 10 years. Historical events have included phreatomagmatic eruptions through a hot crater lake and two dome-building episodes. Ski-field facilities, road and rail bridges, alpine huts and portions of a major hydroelectrical power scheme have been damaged or destroyed by these eruptions. Destruction of a rail bridge by a lahar in 1953 caused the loss of 151 lives. Other potential hazards, with Holocene analogues, include Strombolian and sub-Plinian explosive eruptions, lava extrusion from summit or flank vents and collapse of portions of the volcano. The greatest hazards would result from renewed phreatomagmatic activity in Crater Lake or collapse of its weak southeastern wall. Three types of hazard zones can be defined for the phreatomagmatic events: inner zones of extreme risk from ballistic blocks and surges, outer zones of disruption to services from fall deposits and zones of risk from lahars, which consist of tongues down major river valleys. Ruapehu is prone to destructive lahars because of the presence of 107 m3 of hot acid water in Crater Lake and because of the surrounding summit glaciers and ice fields. The greatest risks at Ruapehu are to thousands of skiers on the ski field which crosses a northern lahar path. Three early warning schemes have been established to deal with the lahar problems. Collapse of the southeastern confining wall would release much of the lake into an eastern lahar path causing widespread damage. This is a long-term risk which could only be mitigated by drainage of the lake.