Short communication: Impact of climate variability on the incidence of dengue in Mexico

We evaluated the impact of weather variables and climatic indicators associated with the incidence of dengue in two municipalities of the state of Veracruz, Mexico, from 1995 to 2003. A retrospective ecological study was conducted, using time‐series analysis in which we compiled the weekly reported cases of dengue and the weather and climatic parameters: temperature, rainfall and sea‐surface temperature (SST), the latter as an El Niño Southern Oscillation indicator. We statistically evaluated the data with autogressive models. The models’ predictive abilities were evaluated using data collected from 1995 to 2002 and were validated with those observed for 2003. Each degree Centigrade increase in SST was followed by an increase in the number of dengue cases: 46% in San Andrés Tuxtla (P = 0.001) 16 weeks later and 42% in Veracruz 20 weeks later (P = 0.002). Increases in weekly minimum temperature and rainfall were also significant factors in the increase in the reported cases of dengue. We recommend future studies using the same method, involving larger populations with different geographic location, climate and weather. We also recommend strengthening environmental, health and entomological surveillance systems to improve preparedness and emergency responses.

[1]  S I Hay,et al.  Etiology of interepidemic periods of mosquito-borne disease. , 2000, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[2]  K. smoyer-Tomic,et al.  Dengue epidemics and the El Niño Southern Oscillation , 2001 .

[3]  Reseña de "La salud de la población. Hacia una nueva Salud Pública" de J. Frenk , 1995 .

[4]  Anthony J McMichael,et al.  Nonstationary Influence of El Niño on the Synchronous Dengue Epidemics in Thailand , 2005, PLoS medicine.

[5]  B. Larke.  The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance. , 1995 .

[6]  A. RodrÍguez-Morales,et al.  Asociación entre las variaciones climáticas y los casos de dengue en un hospital de Caracas, Venezuela, 1998-2004 , 2005 .

[7]  P Weinstein,et al.  El Niño and the dynamics of vectorborne disease transmission. , 1999, Environmental health perspectives.

[8]  I M Longini,et al.  Determinants and predictors of dengue infection in Mexico. , 1991, American journal of epidemiology.

[9]  P. Reiter.  Global-warming and vector-borne disease in temperate regions and at high altitude , 1998, The Lancet.

[10]  D. R. Prevots,et al.  First reported outbreak of classical dengue fever at 1,700 meters above sea level in Guerrero State, Mexico, June 1988. , 1992, The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene.

[11]  Roberto Velandia,et al.  Informe de labores , 1994 .

[12]  Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez,et al.  El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Global Modes of ENSO and Non-ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Their Associations with Climate , 2000 .

[13]  R. Danis-Lozano,et al.  Gender-related family head schooling and Aedes aegypti larval breeding risk in southern Mexico. , 2002, Salud publica de Mexico.

[14]  Joel Susskind,et al.  Biological and Physical Signs of Climate Change: Focus on Mosquito-borne Diseases , 1998 .

[15]  J. Patz,et al.  Global climate change and emerging infectious diseases. , 1996, JAMA.

[16]  Guillermo A. Corres,et al.  Análisis de series temporales , 2009 .

[17]  D. Gubler,et al.  Resurgent vector-borne diseases as a global health problem. , 1998, Emerging infectious diseases.

[18]  G. Poveda,et al.  Coupling between annual and ENSO timescales in the malaria-climate association in Colombia. , 2001, Environmental health perspectives.

[19]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  The Definition of El Niño. , 1997 .

[20]  M. Guzmán,et al.  Dengue: an update. , 2002, The Lancet. Infectious diseases.

[21]  G. Box,et al.  On a measure of lack of fit in time series models , 1978 .

[22]  Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez,et al.  Multiscale Variabilities in Global Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Relationships with Tropospheric Climate Patterns , 1999 .

[23]  W. Hu,et al.  Climate variation and incidence of Ross river virus in Cairns, Australia: a time-series analysis. , 2001, Environmental health perspectives.

[24]  S. Scrimshaw,et al.  Rapid assessment procedures in environmental sanitation research: a case study from the northern border of Mexico. , 2006, Canadian journal of public health.

[25]  Tereza Cavazos.  Large-scale circulation anomalies conducive to extreme precipitation events and derivation of daily rainfall in northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas , 1999 .

[26]  Germán Poveda,et al.  Coupling between Annual and ENSO Timescales in the Malaria-Climate Association in Colombia , 2001 .

[27]  S. Ibáñez,et al.  Los vectores del dengue en México: una revisión crítica , 1995 .

[28]  G. Box,et al.  Distribution of Residual Autocorrelations in Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average Time Series Models , 1970 .

[29]  C. Shy,et al.  Ozone exposure and daily mortality in Mexico City: a time-series analysis. , 1996, Research report.

[30]  Jonathan A. Foley,et al.  Global-Scale Relationships between Climate and the Dengue Fever Vector, Aedes Aegypti , 2001 .

[31]  Robert E Black,et al.  Effects of EI Niño and ambient temperature on hospital admissions for diarrhoeal diseases in Peruvian children , 2000, The Lancet.

[32]  S. Scrimshaw,et al.  Rapid Assessment Procedures in Environmental Sanitation Research , 2006 .

[33]  Daniel J. Gould,et al.  Ecology and control of dengue vectors on an island in the Gulf of Thailand. , 1970, Journal of medical entomology.

[34]  C. F. Li,et al.  Rainfall, abundance of Aedes aegypti and dengue infection in Selangor, Malaysia. , 1985, The Southeast Asian journal of tropical medicine and public health.

[35]  El riesgo de transmisión del dengue: un espacio para la estratificación , 1995 .

[36]  N. Nicholls,et al.  El Niño-Southern Oscillation and vector-borne disease , 1993, The Lancet.

[37]  S. Hales,et al.  Dengue fever epidemics in the South Pacific: driven by El Nino Southern Oscillation? , 1996, The Lancet.

[38]  B. A. Harrison,et al.  Effect of temperature on the vector efficiency of Aedes aegypti for dengue 2 virus. , 1987, The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene.

[39]  Y. Malhi,et al.  Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions. , 2004, Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences.

[40]  S. Hales,et al.  Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model , 2002, The Lancet.

[41]  R. Kovats.  El Niño and human health. , 2000, Bulletin of the World Health Organization.

[42]  C. Depradine,et al.  Climatological variables and the incidence of Dengue fever in Barbados , 2004, International journal of environmental health research.

[43]  Bachti Alisjahbana,et al.  Epidemiology of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever in a cohort of adults living in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. , 2005, The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene.

[44]  Andy Haines,et al.  El Niño and health , 2003, The Lancet.

[45]  L. Garrett.  The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance , 1994 .

[46]  R. Sehgal.  Dengue fever and El Niño , 1997, The Lancet.