Trends in the incidence of digestive cancers in France between 1980 and 2005 and projections for the year 2010

The aim of this study was to present estimates of national trends in the incidence of the most frequent digestive cancers over the period 1980–2005 and to provide projections up to 2010. World age-standardised estimates of national incidence were modelled using data from the French cancer registries and the incidence/mortality ratios observed in the area covered by the contributing registries, using an age–period–cohort model. The incidence of oesophageal cancers in men strongly decreased over time from 15.3 in 1980 to 7.9 per 100 000 in 2005, whereas the incidence in women slowly increased. A steadily decreasing trend in gastric cancer was found in both sexes. After a steady increase until 1995, the incidence of colorectal cancer stabilised in both sexes, with a slight decrease in men. In 2010, the projected incidence was 36.5 per 100 000 in men and 24.4 in women. The incidence of liver cancer showed the highest increase over time. In men, this increase was steeper until 1995 than later. The projected incidence in 2010 was 10.9 per 100 000 in men and 2.4 in women. The incidence of pancreatic cancer increased slowly between 1980 and 1990 and increased steeply after 1990, reaching an estimated 7.6 per 100 000 in men and 4.7 in women in 2005. This study on trends in the incidence of digestive cancers in France showed large changes between 1980 and 2010. The increase in the incidence of primary liver cancer and pancreatic cancer was striking. Colorectal cancer incidence is stabilising.