Exploring profit - Sustainability trade-offs in cropping systems using evolutionary algorithms

Models that implement the bio-physical components of agro-ecosystems are ideally suited for exploring sustainability issues in cropping systems. Sustainability may be represented as a number of objectives to be maximised or minimised. However, the full decision space of these objectives is usually very large and simplifications are necessary to safeguard computational feasibility. Different optimisation approaches have been proposed in the literature, usually based on mathematical programming techniques. Here, we present a search approach based on a multiobjective evaluation technique within an evolutionary algorithm (EA), linked to the APSIM cropping systems model. A simple case study addressing crop choice and sowing rules in North-East Australian cropping systems is used to illustrate the methodology. Sustainability of these systems is evaluated in terms of economic performance and resource use. Due to the limited size of this sample problem, the quality of the EA optimisation can be assessed by comparison to the full problem domain. Results demonstrate that the EA procedure, parameterised with generic parameters from the literature, converges to a useable solution set within a reasonable amount of time. Frontier ‘‘peels’’ or Pareto-optimal solutions as described by the multiobjective evaluation procedure provide useful information for discussion on trade-offs between conflicting objectives.

[1]  Graeme L. Hammer,et al.  Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software , 2002 .

[2]  Ari Jolma,et al.  Interfacing environmental simulation models and databases using XML , 2003, Environ. Model. Softw..

[3]  Eckart Zitzler,et al.  Evolutionary algorithms for multiobjective optimization: methods and applications , 1999 .

[4]  Keith L. Downing,et al.  Using evolutionary computational techniques in environmental modelling , 1998 .

[5]  Bruce A. McCarl,et al.  The Choice of Crop Rotation: A Modeling Approach and Case Study , 1986 .

[6]  N. Nicholls,et al.  Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems : the Australian experience , 2000 .

[7]  Walter A.H. Rossing,et al.  Operationalizing sustainability: exploring options for environmentally friendly flower bulb production systems , 1997, European Journal of Plant Pathology.

[8]  Graeme L. Hammer,et al.  APSIM: an agricultural production system simulation model for operational research , 1995 .

[9]  Holger Meinke,et al.  The Potential Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Managing Cropping Systems , 2000 .

[10]  Jeffrey Horn,et al.  The nature of niching: genetic algorithms and the evolution of optimal, cooperative populations , 1997 .

[11]  D. Holzworth,et al.  The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climatic variability , 1996 .