Hourly Global Radiation Prediction from Geostationary Satellite Data

Intermittency and cyclical nature of global radiation at ground level limit the photovoltaic (PV) systems integration on electrical grids. Indeed, voltage instability is considered as one of the main threats for power systems security around the world. To overcome this problem, irradiation prediction is essential to drive the transition between renewable and nonrenewable energy sources. Concerning the small electrical networks with a few PV stations, conventional tools using one measured time series per location allow radiation forecasting. This 1-D approach becomes obsolete for the large electrical networks with many stations. In this paper we generalize the 1-D time series methodology with the robustness of the satellite acquisitions. A new 2-D prediction tool combining HelioClim3 estimations and stochastic models is introduced and validated. With this study, the PV part of the global energy mix could be increased, reducing thereby the non-renewable and exhaustible fossil fuel part.