Toward calibration of regional groundwater models using GRACE data

Summary Regional groundwater models are increasingly used for short- and long-term water resources planning, in anticipation of greater climate variability and population growth. However, many of these models are subject to structural and parametric uncertainties because of the lack of field measurements. In recent years, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission has shown great potential for tracking total water storage changes over large regions. The pattern of groundwater storage changes inferred from GRACE may be incorporated as an additional regularization mechanism for calibrating regional groundwater models. Motivated by the demonstrated success of GRACE for monitoring groundwater storage changes, this study explores the combined use of in situ water level measurements and GRACE-derived groundwater storage changes for calibrating regional groundwater models. The resulting optimization problem is solved using an evolutionary optimization algorithm. We demonstrate the proposed calibration strategy for the hydraulically connected Edwards–Trinity Plateau and Pecos Valley aquifers (total area 115,000 km2) in west Texas. Monthly GRACE data from 2002 to 2007 were used to recalibrate a regional groundwater model developed for the area. Our results indicate that (i) calibration using in situ data alone may yield multiple plausible solutions, a phenomenon well known to hydrologists; and (ii) GRACE data helped further constrain model parameters over the study period and, thus, may be continuously assimilated, among other sources of data, for enhancing existing regional groundwater models.

[1]  S. Petrovic,et al.  Integration of GRACE mass variations into a global hydrological model , 2009 .

[2]  Alex J. Cannon,et al.  Groundwater–surface water interaction under scenarios of climate change using a high-resolution transient groundwater model , 2007 .

[3]  Juana Paul Moiwo,et al.  Comparison of GRACE with in situ hydrological measurement data shows storage depletion in Hai River basin, Northern China , 2009 .

[4]  Avi Ostfeld,et al.  State of the Art for Genetic Algorithms and Beyond in Water Resources Planning and Management , 2010 .

[5]  R. Maxwell,et al.  Interdependence of groundwater dynamics and land-energy feedbacks under climate change , 2008 .

[6]  Guillaume Ramillien,et al.  Basin‐scale, integrated observations of the early 21st century multiyear drought in southeast Australia , 2009 .

[7]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[8]  W. Kinzelbach,et al.  A regional coupled surface water/groundwater model of the Okavango Delta, Botswana , 2006 .

[9]  J. Famiglietti,et al.  Improving parameter estimation and water table depth simulation in a land surface model using GRACE water storage and estimated base flow data , 2010 .

[10]  Mary C. Hill,et al.  Death valley regional ground-water flow model calibration using optimal parameter estimation methods and geoscientific information systems , 1999 .

[11]  N. Sun.  Inverse problems in groundwater modeling , 1994 .

[12]  W. Edmunds,et al.  Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/hyp.6335 Global synthesis of groundwater recharge in semiarid andaridregions , 2022 .

[13]  William E. Carter,et al.  Precise Geodetic Infrastructure: National Requirements for a Shared Resource , 2010 .

[14]  M. Watkins,et al.  GRACE Measurements of Mass Variability in the Earth System , 2004, Science.

[15]  Alexander Y. Sun,et al.  Inferring aquifer storage parameters using satellite and in situ measurements: Estimation under uncertainty , 2010 .

[16]  M. Marietta,et al.  Pilot Point Methodology for Automated Calibration of an Ensemble of conditionally Simulated Transmissivity Fields: 1. Theory and Computational Experiments , 1995 .

[17]  Gunnar Gustafson,et al.  The Äspö Task Force on groundwater flow and transport of solutes: bridging the gap between site characterization and performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal in fractured rocks , 2009 .

[18]  Andreas Güntner,et al.  Improvement of Global Hydrological Models Using GRACE Data , 2008 .

[19]  S. Swenson,et al.  A comparison of terrestrial water storage variations from GRACE with in situ measurements from Illinois , 2006 .

[20]  David E. Goldberg,et al.  Simplifying multiobjective optimization: An automated design methodology for the nondominated sorted genetic algorithm‐II , 2003 .

[21]  Greg Pohll,et al.  An unconfined groundwater model of the Death Valley Regional Flow System and a comparison to its confined predecessor , 2009 .

[22]  Keith Beven,et al.  Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling , 1993 .

[23]  S. Swenson,et al.  Satellites measure recent rates of groundwater depletion in California's Central Valley , 2011 .

[24]  Roberto Anaya,et al.  Update of the Groundwater Availability Model for the Edwards-Trinity (Plateau) and Pecos Valley Aquifers of Texas , 2011 .

[25]  Jens Christian Refsgaard,et al.  Groundwater Modeling in Integrated Water Resources Management—Visions for 2020 , 2010, Ground water.

[26]  P. Cook,et al.  Using groundwater levels to estimate recharge , 2002 .

[27]  Arlen W. Harbaugh,et al.  MODFLOW-2000, The U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model - User Guide to Modularization Concepts and the Ground-Water Flow Process , 2000 .

[28]  M. Rodell,et al.  Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Data into a Land Surface Model: Results for the Mississippi River Basin , 2008 .

[29]  C. Tiedeman,et al.  Methods for using groundwater model predictions to guide hydrogeologic data collection, with application to the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system , 2003 .

[30]  B. Scanlon,et al.  Comparison of seasonal terrestrial water storage variations from GRACE with groundwater‐level measurements from the High Plains Aquifer (USA) , 2007 .

[31]  Kalyanmoy Deb,et al.  A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II , 2002, IEEE Trans. Evol. Comput..

[32]  J. Famiglietti,et al.  Terrestrial water mass load changes from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) , 2006 .

[33]  Zong-Liang Yang,et al.  Retrieving snow mass from GRACE terrestrial water storage change with a land surface model , 2007 .

[34]  D. Sweetkind,et al.  Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, Nevada and California : hydrogeologic framework and transient groundwater flow model , 2010 .

[35]  S. Swenson,et al.  Remote sensing of groundwater storage changes in Illinois using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) , 2006 .

[36]  Jeffrey B. Basara,et al.  Estimating profile soil moisture and groundwater variations using GRACE and Oklahoma Mesonet soil moisture data , 2008 .