Southern Forest Resource Assessment Using the Subregional Timber Supply (SRTS) Model

Most timber supply analyses are focused on broad regions. This paper describes a modeling system that uses a standard empirical framework applied to subregional inventory data in the South. Model results indicate significant within-region variation in supply responses across owners and regions. Projections of southern timber markets indicate that results are sensitive to: 1) estimates ofcurrent harvest; 2) conversion ofnatural stands to plantations; and 3) growth rates associated with plantations. Given projected increases in demand, intensive pine management could ameliorate real price increases. For hardwoods, uncertainty about the viability of intensive management or imports makes supply response projections less conclusive.