Knowledge level modeling for systemic risk management in financial institutions

The current subprime mortgage crisis is a typical case for systemic risk in financial institutions. In order to further our understanding and communication about systemic risk management (SRM) in financial institutions, this paper proposes a knowledge level model (KLM) for systemic risk management in financial institutions. There are two parts considered in the proposed KLM: ontologies and problem solving method (PSM). Ontologies are adopted to represent a knowledge base of KLM, which integrates top level ontology and domain level ontologies. And then the problem solving method is given to show the reasoning process of this knowledge. The symbol level of KLM is also discussed which integrates OWL, SWRL and JESS. Further, the discussion about Lehman Brother's Minibonds case in 2008 is provided to illustrate how proposed KLM is used in practice. With these, first, they will enhance the interchange of information and knowledge sharing for SRM within a financial institution. Second, they will assist knowledge base development for SRM design, for which a prototype of financial systemic risk management decision support system is given in this study. Third, they will support coordination among different institutions by using standardized vocabularies. And finally, from the design science perspective, the whole proposed framework could be meaningful to models in other domains.

[1]  Andrew Gemino,et al.  A framework for empirical evaluation of conceptual modeling techniques , 2004, Requirements Engineering.

[2]  Balakrishnan Chandrasekaran,et al.  What are ontologies, and why do we need them? , 1999, IEEE Intell. Syst..

[3]  Myron S. Scholes Crisis and Risk Management , 2000 .

[4]  Helmut Elsinger,et al.  Risk Assessment for Banking Systems , 2003, Manag. Sci..

[5]  Ramanathan V. Guha,et al.  Building Large Knowledge-Based Systems: Representation and Inference in the Cyc Project , 1990 .

[6]  Huaiqing Wang,et al.  Ontologies for crisis contagion management in financial institutions , 2009, J. Inf. Sci..

[7]  Franklin R. Edward Hedge Funds and the Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management , 1999 .

[8]  Keng Siau,et al.  Improving the quality of conceptual modeling using cognitive mapping techniques , 2005, Data Knowl. Eng..

[9]  Sandra Marcus,et al.  Automating Knowledge Acquisition for Expert Systems , 1988 .

[10]  Huaiqing Wang,et al.  An ontology for causal relationships between news and financial instruments , 2008, Expert Syst. Appl..

[11]  Huaiqing Wang,et al.  A commonsense knowledge base supported multi-agent architecture , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[12]  Guus Schreiber,et al.  KADS : a principled approach to knowledge-based system development , 1993 .

[13]  Philippe Jorion,et al.  Risk Management Lessons from Long-Term Capital Management , 1999 .

[14]  G. Kaufman Banking and currency crisis and systemic risk: lessons from recent events , 2000 .

[15]  Herbert A. Simon,et al.  The Sciences of the Artificial , 1970 .

[16]  Peter P. Chen The entity-relationship model: toward a unified view of data , 1975, VLDB '75.

[17]  Dieter Fensel,et al.  Editorial: problem-solving methods , 1998, Int. J. Hum. Comput. Stud..

[18]  Stephen M. Horan The Near Crash of 1998: Crisis and Risk Management , 2001 .

[19]  Douglas B. Lenat,et al.  CYC: Using Common Sense Knowledge to Overcome Brittleness and Knowledge Acquisition Bottlenecks , 1986, AI Mag..

[20]  David A. Marca,et al.  SADT: structured analysis and design technique , 1987 .

[21]  Allen G. Schick,et al.  Lessons from the crisis , 2013 .

[22]  Arne Sølvberg,et al.  Understanding quality in conceptual modeling , 1994, IEEE Software.

[23]  Kristen Nygaard,et al.  SIMULA: an ALGOL-based simulation language , 1966, CACM.

[24]  Paul Lejot,et al.  The Global Financial Crisis and the Future of Financial Regulation in Hong Kong , 2009 .

[25]  Alfred Lehar Measuring Systemic Risk: A Risk Management Approach , 2005 .

[26]  Allen Newell,et al.  The Knowledge Level , 1989, Artif. Intell..

[27]  Douglas B. Lenat,et al.  CYC: a large-scale investment in knowledge infrastructure , 1995, CACM.

[28]  Arne Sølvberg,et al.  Activity Modeling and Behavior Modeling , 1986, Information Systems Design Methodologies: Improving the Practice.

[29]  Michael Uschold,et al.  Knowledge level modelling: concepts and terminology , 1998, The Knowledge Engineering Review.

[30]  Peri Loucopoulos,et al.  Conceptual Modeling, Databases, and Case: An Integrated View of Information Systems Development , 1992 .