Lightning and Fires in the Northwest Territories and Responses to Future Climate Change

Lightning and fire characteristics within the Northwest Territories (NWT) jurisdiction of the Mackenzie Basin between 1994 and 1999 are examined using data from the lightning detection network operating in the NWT and from the national Large Fire Database maintained by the Canadian Forest Service. The convective storm season with associated lightning activity over this region is short but intense, with a strong peak in cloud-to-ground lightning during July. The maximum area of lightning activity is influenced by local moisture sources and by topography. The diurnal distribution of cloud-to-ground flashes indicates that most of the lightning was linked to thunderstorms initiated by daytime heating. The lightning-initiated fire occurrences peaked during July, while much of the burned area was produced in June. The longer, warmer, and drier summer seasons projected to result from climate change are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of forest fires by the end of the 21st century. Their considerable consequences for forests and wildlife make these changes a concern for northern communities, forest managers, and wildlife biologists.

[1]  René Laprise,et al.  A Semi-Implicit Semi-Lagrangian Regional Climate Model: The Canadian RCM , 1999 .

[2]  Earle R. Williams,et al.  Lightning and Forest Fires , 2001 .

[3]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate change 2001 : the scientific basis , 2001 .

[4]  A. Weaver,et al.  The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate , 2000 .

[5]  Igor I. Mokhov,et al.  Climatological features of blocking anticyclones: a study of Northern Hemisphere CCM1 model blocking events in present-day and double CO2 concentration atmospheres , 1997 .

[6]  K. Hirsch,et al.  Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997 , 2002 .

[7]  M. Flannigan,et al.  CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDFIRE IN CANADA , 1991 .

[8]  Helmut Epp,et al.  Satellite data and geographic information systems for fire and resource management in the Canadian arctic , 1996 .

[9]  M. Noguer,et al.  Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2002 .

[10]  Mike D. Flannigan,et al.  Length of the fire season in a changing climate , 1993 .

[11]  T. Chowns FIRE REGIMES IN NAHANNI NATIONAL PARK AND THE MACKENZIE BISON SANCTUARY, NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, CANADA , 2004 .

[12]  Mike D. Flannigan,et al.  Canadian boreal forest ecosystem structure and function in a changing climate: impact on fire regimes , 1997 .

[13]  Gordon B. Bonan,et al.  Ecological Climatology: Concepts and Applications , 2002 .

[14]  L. Mearns,et al.  Climate Change and Forest Fire Potential in Russian and Canadian Boreal Forests , 1998 .

[15]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments , 2000 .

[16]  David W. Phillips,et al.  The climates of Canada , 1990 .

[17]  R. Moss,et al.  The regional impacts of climate change : an assessment of vulnerability , 1997 .

[18]  M. Flannigan,et al.  Future Area Burned in Canada , 2005 .

[19]  Moustafa T. Chahine,et al.  GEWEX: The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment , 1992 .

[20]  D. Rind,et al.  Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies , 1994 .

[21]  J. Rowe,et al.  Forest regions of Canada. , 1972 .

[22]  W. D. Hogg,et al.  The water balance climatology of the Mackenzie basin with reference to the 1994/95 water year , 2002 .

[23]  C. E. Van Wagner,et al.  Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System , 1987 .

[24]  K. Hirsch,et al.  Direct carbon emissions from Canadian forest fires, 1959-1999 , 2001 .

[25]  M. Mackay,et al.  Hydrometeorological features of the Mackenzie basin climate system during the 1994/95 water year: A period of record Low Discharge , 2002 .

[26]  H. Christian Global Frequency and Distribution of Lightning as Observed From Space , 2001 .

[27]  H. Ritchie,et al.  The Mackenzie GEWEX study : The Water and Energy cycles of a major North American River basin , 1998 .

[28]  Stewart J. Cohen What If and So What in Northwest Canada : Could Climate Change Make a Difference to the Future of the Mackenzie Basin? , 1997 .

[29]  J. Overpeck,et al.  Abrupt climate change: Inevitable surprises , 2002 .

[30]  C. E. V. Wagner,et al.  Conversion of Williams' severity rating for use with the fire weather index. , 1970 .

[31]  Z. Cao,et al.  On the physical processes associated with the water budget and discharge of the Mackenzie basin during the 1994/95 water year , 2002 .

[32]  Moustafa T. Chahine,et al.  The hydrological cycle and its influence on climate , 1992, Nature.

[33]  Mike D. Flannigan,et al.  Summer convection and lightning over the Mackenzie river basin and their Impacts during 1994 and 1995 , 2002 .