Greenhouse warming and changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature: Model versus observations

Thomson [1995] argues that an enhanced green-house effect may be altering the seasonal cycle in temperature. We compare trends in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle in observational temperature data in the northern hemisphere with the response of two general circulation models to increased CO2 concentrations. Sizeable amplitude decreases are observed in both models and observations. Significant phase delays (ie, later seasonal transitions) are found in the simulations, opposite to the phase advances isolated in the observations. The retreat of winter sea ice in high-latitude regions appears to explain the models' response to CO2 increase. Much of the variability in the observational data is not predicted by the models.

[1]  James W. Hurrell,et al.  A modulation of the atmospheric annual cycle in the Southern Hemisphere , 1994 .

[2]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  THE SEASONS , 2022, Becoming Rooted.

[3]  T. Wigley,et al.  Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature Variations: 1851–1984 , 1986 .

[4]  Syukuro Manabe,et al.  Transient responses of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO2 , 1991 .

[5]  N. Graham,et al.  Simulation of Recent Global Temperature Trends , 1995, Science.

[6]  Michael E. Mann,et al.  Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales , 1994 .

[7]  M. Dettinger,et al.  Large-Scale Atmospheric Forcing of Recent Trends toward Early Snowmelt Runoff in California , 1995 .

[8]  Michael E. Mann,et al.  Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries , 1995, Nature.

[9]  Thomas R. Karl,et al.  Observed Impact of Snow Cover on the Heat Balance and the Rise of Continental Spring Temperatures , 1994, Science.

[10]  Balaji Rajagopalan,et al.  Seasonality of precipitation along a meridian in the western U , 1995 .

[11]  Michael E. Schlesinger,et al.  An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years , 1994, Nature.

[12]  Upmanu Lall,et al.  Decadal‐to‐centennial‐scale climate variability: Insights into the rise and fall of the Great Salt Lake , 1995 .

[13]  James W. Hurrell,et al.  Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific , 1994 .

[14]  Barry Saltzman,et al.  Equilibrium Climate Statistics of a General Circulation Model as a Function of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Part I: Geographic Distributions of Primary Variables , 1992 .

[15]  Harry F. Lins,et al.  Increasing U.S. streamflow linked to greenhouse forcing , 1994 .

[16]  David J. Thomson,et al.  The Seasons, Global Temperature, and Precession , 1995, Science.

[17]  K. Briffa,et al.  Global Surface Air Temperature Variations During the Twentieth Century: Part 1, Spatial, Temporal and Seasonal Details , 1992 .

[18]  J. Lean,et al.  Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change , 1995 .

[19]  P. Jones,et al.  Hemispheric Surface Air Temperature Variations: A Reanalysis and an Update to 1993. , 1994 .

[20]  Susan Marshall,et al.  A COMPARISON OF THE CCM1-SIMULATED CLIMATES FOR PRE-INDUSTRIAL AND PRESENT-DAY CO2 LEVELS , 1995 .

[21]  Roy Thompson,et al.  Complex demodulation and the estimation of the changing continentality of Europe's climate , 1995 .

[22]  N. E. Davis The variability of the onset of spring in Britain , 1972 .

[23]  Syukuro Manabe,et al.  Interdecadal Variations of the Thermohaline Circulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model , 1993 .

[24]  Raymond S. Bradley,et al.  Precipitation history of the Rocky Mountain States , 1976 .