A novel nomogram to predict survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after transarterial chemoembolization: a tool for retreatment decision making

Background There is still no standardized policy regarding how to identify patients who are not benefiting from transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). We aimed to establish and validate a nomogram model to predict the survival rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after TACE. Methods A total of 578 HCC patients undergoing initial TACE at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University were retrospectively recruited to the study. The patients were randomly divided into 2 cohorts: a training cohort (n=405) and a validation cohort (n=173). To develop the nomogram, Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors. The performances of the nomogram were assessed by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA), and were compared to 4 developed prognostic models. Results We used 5 independent risk factors including postoperative albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, tumor diameter, number of tumors, portal vein invasion, and tumor response to develop the nomogram. Calibration curves showed consistency between the nomogram and the actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.753 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.722, 0.784], which was higher than the other prognostic models (P<0.001). The DCA showed that the nomogram had the highest net benefit among the models. According to predicted survival risk, the nomogram could divide patients into 3 groups (P<0.001). All the results were verified in the validation cohort. Conclusions This study developed and validated a nomogram model for HCC patients undergoing TACE, which could predict the survival rate and provide support for further treatment strategies.