THE CANDIDATE PROBLEM WITH UNKNOWN POPULATION SIZE

The familiar problem of maximizing the probability of choosing the best from a group of N candidates, where N is known, is extended to the case of N unknown. An a priori distribution is assumed for N, and the case of a uniform distribution is examined. Let VN denote the probability of choosing the best from a group of at most N candidates, then it is shown that lim VN = 2e-2