Catalog Forecasting System : A Graphics-Based Decision Support System

JCPenney Company operates a $3 billion catalog business where avoiding excessive stockouts and overstocking is extremely critical for the financial and operating success. Improved forecast accuracy and the Quick Responses capability (i.e., the ability to respond to demand changes through continual updating of forecast) are naturally important here. In line with these goals, JCPenney Company has recently implemented a state-of-the-art Catalog Forecasting System. This graphics-based decision support system was , especially designed and developed to support the catalog inventory control specialists in their forecasting and inventory control decisions. In this paper, we present how this system is being used, its important features, the lesson learned in its development and implementation, and the strategic impact of the system. In addition to its easy-to-use graphical interfaces, the system's notable features include the use of advanced analytical capabilities and the process re-engineering that has accompanied its implementation. The realized strategic benefits of the system include continuous improvement in decision making, increased productivity, enhanced Quick Response capability and significant financial gains. Our system development and implementation experience indicates that the users' strong involvement in the design and development, the management's full commitment, and an extensive user training are required pre-requisites of the success of a decision support system.