Five models of clinical judgment: An empirical comparison between linear and nonlinear representations of the human inference process

Abstract Two nonlinear models, which were proposed by Einhorn as approximations of the Conjunctive and Disjunctive strategies, were compared with the Linear, Logarithmic, and Exponential models as potential representations of the judgments made by 29 clinical psychologists, each of whom attempted to differentiate neurotic from psychotic patients on the basis of their MMPI profiles. For this task, the Linear model provided a better representation of the judgments made by all clinicians than did either of Einhorn's models, and only the Logarithmic provided the Linear model with any real competition. Moreover, serious problems endemic to all of the nonlinear models call into question their utility as potential judgmental representations.

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