Modeling-error robustness of a viral-load preconditioning strategy for HIV treatment switching

In previous work, we have developed optimal-control based approaches that seek to minimize the risk of subsequent virological failure by “pre-conditioning” the viral load during therapy switches. In this paper, we use Monte-Carlo methods to evaluate the sensitivity of an open-loop implementation of these approaches to modeling errors. To account for hidden parameter dependencies, we use parameter distributions obtained from the convergence of Bayesian parameter estimation techniques applied to sets of clinical data obtained during serial therapy interruptions as the distribution from which the Monte-Carlo method samples.