Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range 1 dynamics 2 3

45 Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 46 21 century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably 47 project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to 48 model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution 49 models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no 50 comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. 51 Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) 52 models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal 53 or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian 54 process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic 55 and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs 56 performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance 57 varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved 58 predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the 59 population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. 60 When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community 61 processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, 62 we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model 63 accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties 64 considerably. 65 Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species’ 66 response to climate change but also emphasise several needs for further model and data 67 improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through 68 Page 3 of 38 Global Change Biology

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