Seasonal Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Climate Variations in CMIP5 Models: Evaluation and Projection

National Natural Science Foundation of China [41530528, 41561134016]; 111 Project; National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China; European Research Council Synergy Grant [ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P]

[1]  Stephen Sitch,et al.  A roadmap for improving the representation of photosynthesis in Earth system models. , 2017, The New phytologist.

[2]  Shilong Piao,et al.  Delayed autumn phenology in the Northern Hemisphere is related to change in both climate and spring phenology , 2016, Global change biology.

[3]  M. Shen,et al.  Strong impacts of daily minimum temperature on the green‐up date and summer greenness of the Tibetan Plateau , 2016, Global change biology.

[4]  A. Richardson,et al.  Productivity of North American grasslands is increased under future climate scenarios despite rising aridity , 2016 .

[5]  J. Räisänen,et al.  Projections for the duration and degree days of the thermal growing season in Europe derived from CMIP5 model output , 2016 .

[6]  Nathaniel A. Brunsell,et al.  Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought , 2016, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[7]  C. Ottlé,et al.  Causes of uncertainty in China's net primary production over the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models , 2016 .

[8]  Rogier de Jong,et al.  Variability and evolution of global land surface phenology over the past three decades (1982–2012) , 2016, Global change biology.

[9]  Yi Y. Liu,et al.  The dry season intensity as a key driver of NPP trends , 2016 .

[10]  Philippe Ciais,et al.  Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models , 2016 .

[11]  Steven W. Running,et al.  Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization , 2016 .

[12]  Nuno Carvalhais,et al.  Enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems , 2016, Science.

[13]  Jan Verbesselt,et al.  Combining satellite data for better tropical forest monitoring , 2016 .

[14]  P. Beck,et al.  Seasonal divergence in the interannual responses of Northern Hemisphere vegetation activity to variations in diurnal climate , 2016, Scientific Reports.

[15]  Yujie He,et al.  Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models , 2016 .

[16]  A. Seth,et al.  Recent and Projected Annual Cycles of Temperature and Precipitation in the Northeast United States from CMIP5 , 2016 .

[17]  Anja Rammig,et al.  Model-data synthesis for the next generation of forest free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments. , 2016, The New phytologist.

[18]  M. Duniway,et al.  Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern United States , 2015, Global change biology.

[19]  M. Shen,et al.  Precipitation impacts on vegetation spring phenology on the Tibetan Plateau , 2015, Global change biology.

[20]  Shunlin Liang,et al.  Time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change , 2015, Global change biology.

[21]  Chun Chen,et al.  Spatial and Temporal Changes in Vegetation Phenology at Middle and High Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere over the Past Three Decades , 2015, Remote. Sens..

[22]  D. Frierson,et al.  Terrestrial Aridity and Its Response to Greenhouse Warming across CMIP5 Climate Models , 2015 .

[23]  Y. Basset,et al.  Whole-ecosystem experimental manipulations of tropical forests. , 2015, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[24]  S. Reed,et al.  Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests , 2015, Global change biology.

[25]  P. Jones,et al.  Projections of the advance in the start of the growing season during the 21st century based on CMIP5 simulations , 2015, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

[26]  D. Lawrence,et al.  Permafrost carbon−climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics , 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[27]  Jing M. Chen,et al.  Comparative Assessment of Grassland NPP Dynamics in Response to Climate Change in China, North America, Europe and Australia from 1981 to 2010 , 2015 .

[28]  D. M. Lawrence,et al.  Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback , 2014, Nature.

[29]  S. Page,et al.  Global vulnerability of peatlands to fire and carbon loss , 2015 .

[30]  E. Black,et al.  Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[31]  N. Zeng,et al.  Continued increase in atmospheric CO 2 seasonal amplitude in the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models , 2014 .

[32]  Kelly K. Caylor,et al.  Terrestrial hydrological controls on land surface phenology of African savannas and woodlands , 2014 .

[33]  Compton J. Tucker,et al.  A Non-Stationary 1981-2012 AVHRR NDVI3g Time Series , 2014, Remote. Sens..

[34]  I. Wing,et al.  Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology , 2014 .

[35]  Francis W. Zwiers,et al.  Consistency of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes across Various Global Gridded In Situ and Reanalysis Datasets , 2014 .

[36]  Hartmut Boesch,et al.  Toward robust and consistent regional CO2 flux estimates from in situ and spaceborne measurements of atmospheric CO2 , 2014 .

[37]  Ranga B. Myneni,et al.  Temperature and Snow-Mediated Moisture Controls of Summer Photosynthetic Activity in Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems between 1982 and 2011 , 2014, Remote. Sens..

[38]  J. Marengo,et al.  Climate change hotspots over South America: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 multi-model datasets , 2014, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

[39]  J. Randerson,et al.  Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century , 2013 .

[40]  Alfredo Huete,et al.  Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics in savanna vegetation phenology across the North Australian Tropical Transect , 2013 .

[41]  Ben Kravitz,et al.  A multimodel examination of climate extremes in an idealized geoengineering experiment , 2013 .

[42]  Russell K. Monson,et al.  Terrestrial Carbon Cycle: Climate Relations in Eight CMIP5 Earth System Models , 2013 .

[43]  Q. Fu,et al.  Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate , 2013 .

[44]  William R. Wieder,et al.  Global soil carbon projections are improved by modelling microbial processes , 2013 .

[45]  E. A. Kort,et al.  Enhanced Seasonal Exchange of CO2 by Northern Ecosystems Since 1960 , 2013, Science.

[46]  X. Zeng,et al.  Soil microbial respiration from observations and Earth System Models , 2013 .

[47]  M. Lomas,et al.  Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends , 2013, Global change biology.

[48]  Philippe Ciais,et al.  Site‐ and species‐specific responses of forest growth to climate across the European continent , 2013 .

[49]  C. Peng,et al.  A climate change‐induced threat to the ecological resilience of a subtropical monsoon evergreen broad‐leaved forest in Southern China , 2013, Global change biology.

[50]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate , 2013 .

[51]  Alessandro Anav,et al.  Global Data Sets of Vegetation Leaf Area Index (LAI)3g and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR)3g Derived from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) for the Period 1981 to 2011 , 2013, Remote. Sens..

[52]  Nicholas G Smith,et al.  Plant respiration and photosynthesis in global‐scale models: incorporating acclimation to temperature and CO2 , 2013, Global change biology.

[53]  J. Randerson,et al.  Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21 st century , 2013 .

[54]  D. Easterling,et al.  Observations: Atmosphere and surface , 2013 .

[55]  A. Dai.  Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models , 2013 .

[56]  C. Tebaldi,et al.  Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility , 2013 .

[57]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections , 2012 .

[58]  S. Reed,et al.  Tropical forest carbon balance in a warmer world: a critical review spanning microbial‐ to ecosystem‐scale processes , 2012, Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society.

[59]  J. Randerson,et al.  Causes of variation in soil carbon simulations from CMIP5 Earth system models and comparison with observations , 2012 .

[60]  Benjamin Smith,et al.  Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections , 2012 .

[61]  Dean N. Williams,et al.  The Earth System Grid Federation: An open infrastructure for access to distributed geospatial data , 2012, 2012 IEEE 8th International Conference on E-Science.

[62]  V. Ivanov,et al.  Investigating Interannual Variability of Precipitation at the Global Scale: Is There a Connection with Seasonality? , 2012 .

[63]  Steven F. Oberbauer,et al.  Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming. , 2012 .

[64]  A. Sobel,et al.  Projected Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Surface Temperature , 2012 .

[65]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[66]  Guirui Yu,et al.  Regional drought-induced reduction in the biomass carbon sink of Canada's boreal forests , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[67]  C. Peng,et al.  A drought-induced pervasive increase in tree mortality across Canada's boreal forests , 2011 .

[68]  S. Goetz,et al.  Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: dynamics, impacts and research priorities , 2011, Environmental Research Letters.

[69]  R. Corlett,et al.  Impacts of warming on tropical lowland rainforests. , 2011, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[70]  I. Polyakov,et al.  Vertical structure of recent arctic warming from observed data and reanalysis products , 2009, Climatic Change.

[71]  Fabienne Maignan,et al.  CO2 surface fluxes at grid point scale estimated from a global 21 year reanalysis of atmospheric measurements , 2010 .

[72]  P. Ciais,et al.  Influence of spring and autumn phenological transitions on forest ecosystem productivity , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[73]  Hans Peter Schmid,et al.  Evidence of increased net ecosystem productivity associated with a longer vegetated season in a deciduous forest in south‐central Indiana, USA , 2010 .

[74]  Damien Sulla-Menashe,et al.  MODIS Collection 5 global land cover: Algorithm refinements and characterization of new datasets , 2010 .

[75]  Jingyun Fang,et al.  Relationship between variability in aboveground net primary production and precipitation in global grasslands , 2008 .

[76]  Michael L. Goulden,et al.  Are tropical forests near a high temperature threshold , 2008 .

[77]  E. Källén,et al.  Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming , 2008, Nature.

[78]  P. Ciais,et al.  Net carbon dioxide losses of northern ecosystems in response to autumn warming , 2008, Nature.

[79]  Philippe Ciais,et al.  Growing season extension and its impact on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 2 decades , 2007 .

[80]  Toke T. Høye,et al.  Rapid advancement of spring in the High Arctic , 2007, Current Biology.

[81]  C. Parmesan.  Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change , 2006 .

[82]  B. Rudolf,et al.  World Map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated , 2006 .

[83]  M. Sturm,et al.  The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan‐Arctic , 2006 .

[84]  R. Schnur,et al.  Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: Results from the C , 2006 .

[85]  Philippe Bousquet,et al.  Inferring CO2 sources and sinks from satellite observations: Method and application to TOVS data , 2005 .

[86]  C J Tucker,et al.  Drier summers cancel out the CO2 uptake enhancement induced by warmer springs. , 2005, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[87]  M. Sturm,et al.  Climate change: Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic , 2001, Nature.

[88]  A. Knapp,et al.  Variation among biomes in temporal dynamics of aboveground primary production. , 2001, Science.

[89]  Philip W. Jones.  First- and Second-Order Conservative Remapping Schemes for Grids in Spherical Coordinates , 1999 .

[90]  Christopher B. Field,et al.  The contribution of terrestrial sources and sinks to trends in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric carbon dioxide , 1997 .

[91]  Derek Eamus,et al.  LEAF PHENOLOGY OF WOODY SPECIES IN A NORTH AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL SAVANNA , 1997 .

[92]  C. D. Keeling,et al.  Increased activity of northern vegetation inferred from atmospheric CO2 measurements , 1996, Nature.