Parameter Uncertainty Analysis of Surface Flow and Sediment Yield in the Huolin Basin, China

AbstractGrowing concerns have been given to parameter uncertainty in hydrological modeling because of the associated effects on water resource management. In this study two uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm (SUFI-2) and the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), were employed to analyze the uncertainty of surface flow and sediment yield modeling results by the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. The two methods were also compared in terms of the capability in quantifying parameter and prediction uncertainties and the computational efficiency. The results showed that the SUFI-2 method was capable of examining the uncertainty by using the Latin hypercube sampling scheme. It also demonstrated the advantages in analyzing the effects of uncertainties for distributed hydrological models with complex structure and high computational demands. The GLUE method is specialized in reflecting parameter correlations and uncertainties associated with parame...

[1]  Keith Beven,et al.  Stochastic capture zone delineation within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation methodology: Conditioning on head observations , 2001 .

[2]  M. B. Beck,et al.  Water quality modeling: A review of the analysis of uncertainty , 1987 .

[3]  Jeffrey D. Niemann,et al.  Evaluating the parameter identifiability and structural validity of a probability-distributed model for soil moisture , 2008 .

[4]  Rolf Weingartner,et al.  An introduction to the hydrological modelling system PREVAH and its pre- and post-processing-tools , 2009, Environ. Model. Softw..

[5]  Jing Yang,et al.  Comparing uncertainty analysis techniques for a SWAT application to the Chaohe Basin in China , 2008 .

[6]  A. Brath,et al.  A stochastic approach for assessing the uncertainty of rainfall‐runoff simulations , 2004 .

[7]  V. Lopes.  On the effect of uncertainty in spatial distribution of rainfall on catchment modelling , 1996 .

[8]  Soroosh Sorooshian,et al.  Toward improved calibration of hydrologic models: Multiple and noncommensurable measures of information , 1998 .

[9]  Pu Li,et al.  Simulation-Based Inexact Two-Stage Chance-Constraint Quadratic Programming for Sustainable Water Quality Management under Dual Uncertainties , 2014 .

[10]  Keith Beven,et al.  The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction. , 1992 .

[11]  Keith Beven,et al.  Equifinality, sensitivity and predictive uncertainty in the estimation of critical loads , 1999 .

[12]  Paul D. Bates,et al.  Assessing the uncertainty in distributed model predictions using observed binary pattern information within GLUE , 2002 .

[13]  Qian Hong,et al.  Parameter uncertainty analysis of non-point source pollution from different land use types. , 2010, The Science of the total environment.

[14]  Dong-Jun Seo,et al.  Simulation of precipitation fields from probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast , 2000 .

[15]  Jimmy R. Williams,et al.  Continuous-time water and sediment-routing model for large basins , 1995 .

[16]  A. Raftery,et al.  Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles , 2005 .

[17]  V. Singh,et al.  Mathematical Modeling of Watershed Hydrology , 2002 .

[18]  Raghavan Srinivasan,et al.  A GIS‐Coupled Hydrological Model System for the Watershed Assessment of Agricultural Nonpoint and Point Sources of Pollution , 2004, Trans. GIS.

[19]  D. Legates,et al.  Evaluating the use of “goodness‐of‐fit” Measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation , 1999 .

[20]  Hugo A. Loáiciga,et al.  Distributed hydrological modelling in California semi-arid shrublands: MIKE SHE model calibration and uncertainty estimation , 2006 .

[21]  Ronald L. Droste,et al.  Parameter Uncertainty of a Watershed Model , 2008 .

[22]  V. Singh,et al.  Evaluation of the subjective factors of the GLUE method and comparison with the formal Bayesian method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models , 2010 .

[23]  ChenBing,et al.  A design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization for hydrological modeling , 2012 .

[24]  Keith Beven,et al.  Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology , 2001 .

[25]  Bing Chen,et al.  Field Investigation and Hydrological Modelling of a Subarctic Wetland - the Deer River Watershed , 2011 .

[26]  K. Abbaspour,et al.  Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT , 2007 .

[27]  K. Abbaspour,et al.  Estimating Uncertain Flow and Transport Parameters Using a Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Procedure , 2004 .

[28]  Bruce A. Robinson,et al.  Treatment of uncertainty using ensemble methods: Comparison of sequential data assimilation and Bayesian model averaging , 2007 .

[29]  Keith Beven,et al.  Implications of model uncertainty for the mapping of hillslope‐scale soil erosion predictions , 2001 .

[30]  K. Beven,et al.  Bayesian Estimation of Uncertainty in Runoff Prediction and the Value of Data: An Application of the GLUE Approach , 1996 .

[31]  Qingyun Duan,et al.  An integrated hydrologic Bayesian multimodel combination framework: Confronting input, parameter, and model structural uncertainty in hydrologic prediction , 2006 .

[32]  J. Feyen,et al.  GLUE Based Assessment on the Overall Predictions of a MIKE SHE Application , 2009 .

[33]  P. Mantovan,et al.  Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: Incoherence of the GLUE methodology , 2006 .

[34]  Qian Hong,et al.  Parameter uncertainty analysis of the non-point source pollution in the Daning River watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China. , 2008, The Science of the total environment.

[35]  Henrik Madsen,et al.  Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling , 2008 .

[36]  John R. Williams,et al.  LARGE AREA HYDROLOGIC MODELING AND ASSESSMENT PART I: MODEL DEVELOPMENT 1 , 1998 .

[37]  John Doherty,et al.  Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis for a watershed model , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..