Changing Lake Dynamics Indicate a Drier Arctic in Western Greenland

The water balance of the Arctic tundra is shifting as permafrost stability, seasonality, and the ratio of precipitation to evaporation respond to amplified Arctic warming. While in some northern tundra locations there has been a notable increase in the number of water bodies, generally, the tundra landscape has experienced a decline in the number and area of lakes. We analyzed changes in small lake count (<10,000 m2), large lake count (>10,000 m2), and lake surface area across the periglacial tundra of western Greenland, using historical satellite and aerial imagery and weather data from the late 1960s to present. Overall, we found a decrease in lake count (21%) and surface area (2%) across our study region. Specifically, smaller ponds were particularly prone to change, with decreases of 28% in count and 15% in surface area. Shrinking lakes often became revegetated by both emergent aquatic and terrestrial vegetation, which captures potential successional trajectories following Arctic lake drying. Additionally, while annual precipitation may be increasing, it occurred primarily during the winter months in the form of snow, which may or may not contribute to the overall growing season water budget. Conversely, the peak growing season months of June, July, and August all have experienced significant increases in potential evaporation rates, thus likely creating a water deficit for much of the growing season. These results suggest that a large section of deglaciated Greenland appears likely to become drier in the summer months, which may result in widespread ecological consequences.