Model-based decision support in energy planning

Models have become standard tools in energy planning. Fast computers and ever improving optimisation packages now allow us to solve problems within a few minutes that were out of range 20 years ago and that 10 years ago could only be solved in several CPU-hours. Fully interactive data bank systems with standardised user interfaces and on-line data access support easy modifications and adaptations of energy models, retrieval and display of results, as well as coupling decision support tools to all kinds of data available in the system. This article gives a brief overview of the objectives in energy planning, especially with respect to different planning horizons. It reviews the types of models applied to different applications and the requirements such tools have to satisfy. The second part surveys some applications of energy optimisation models. These examples have been chosen to illustrate different application areas of energy models from short-term optimal power supply up to very long-term (100 years) resource allocation and technology choice, and from optimising a municipal district heat system up to an energy model for the whole world.

[1]  L. G. Fishbone,et al.  User's guide for MARKAL (BNL/KFA Version 2. 0). A multi-period, linear-programming model for energy systems analysis , 1983 .

[2]  Hans-Holger Rogner,et al.  A Long-Term Macroeconomic Equilibrium Model for the European Community , 1982 .

[3]  Michael A. Saunders,et al.  MINOS 5. 0 user's guide , 1983 .

[4]  A. Merlin,et al.  Optimization methods in planning and operation , 1982 .

[5]  D. R. Bohi,et al.  An Update on Econometric Studies of Energy Demand , 1984 .

[6]  M. Strubegger,et al.  User's Guide for MESSAGE III , 1995 .

[7]  Dale W. Jorgenson,et al.  The economic impact of policies to reduce U.S. energy growth , 1978 .

[8]  Dale W. Jorgenson,et al.  U.S. Energy Policy and Economic Growth, 1975-2000 , 1974 .

[9]  George B. Dantzig,et al.  Linear programming and extensions , 1965 .

[10]  E. Steinbauer.  Erfahrungen des STEWEAG-Lastverteilers mit einen neuern Software-Produkt für die kraftwerkseinsatzoptimierung , 1990 .

[11]  M. Strubegger,et al.  Interactive Decision Analysis in Energy Planning and Policy Assessment , 1985 .

[12]  Manfred Grauer,et al.  An Integrated Programming Package for Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis , 1985 .

[13]  Richard C. Larson,et al.  Model Building in Mathematical Programming , 1979 .

[14]  H. P. Williams,et al.  Model Building in Mathematical Programming , 1979 .

[15]  José Goldemberg,et al.  Energy for a sustainable world , 1987 .

[16]  Alfred Voß,et al.  Simulation techniques in energy analysis , 1981 .

[17]  Andy S. Kydes,et al.  Beyond the horizon: Recent directions in long-term energy modeling , 1995 .

[18]  R. Friedrich,et al.  Tageseinsatzoptimierung mit dem Programmsystem Profako , 1992 .

[19]  Wolf Häfele,et al.  Energy in a finite world , 1981 .

[20]  A. Manne,et al.  Buying greenhouse insurance: The economics costs of carbon dioxide emission limits , 1992 .

[21]  Dominique Foray,et al.  The Changing Economics of Technological Learning , 1996 .