An Integrated Data Based Mechanistic Lowland Catchment Model for the Upper Narew

Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences Ks. Janusza 64, 01-452 Warsaw, Poland e-mail: romanowicz@igf.edu.pl Abstract The aim of this work is the development of an integrated Data Based Mechanistic (DBM) rainfall-flow/flow-routing model of the Upper River Narew catchment and the river reach between Bondary and Suraz suitable for scenario analysis. The modelling tool developed is formulated in MATLAB-SIMULINK language. It has a flexible, modular structure that can easily be extended by add-ing new features, such as a snow-melt module or a distributed routing module. We describe the basic system structure and rainfall-flow and flow routing mod-ules, based on a Stochastic Transfer Function (STF) approach combined with nonlinear transformation of variables using a State Dependent Parameter (SDP) method. One possible application is the derivation of a management strategy for the Siemianowka reservoir, situated upstream of the Bondary gauging station, taking into account both economic and ecological goals. Another future applica-tion is on-line data assimilation and forecasting.

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