Step-Through Simulation: A Method for Implementing Decision Analysis.

Abstract : This report describes the initial development of the step-through variant of Monte Carlo simulation, a new procedure for implementing decision analysis or for training decision makers. Like regular Monte Carlo simulation it involves sampling possible aftermaths of an initial action, and generating a distribution of outcome values for it. However, the detailed structure and/or assessments of the decision model are elicited as called for in the execution of each trial. It therefore permits substantial economy of elicitation if there are few trials. The step-through procedure also offers economy of elicitation and calculation over a traditional extensive-tree decision-analytic model without requiring simplifications or aggregations in the model's conceptualization.