An Integrated Method for Commercialization Potential Evaluation of Emerging Technology Based on TFA

Emerging technologies pose considerable challenges for classical technology assessment. Decision-making more and more requires the information on the potential consequences of the advent of new technologies before they are widely industrialized. So technology forecasting experts have already achieved the mutual recognition of the commercialization potential evaluation of emerging technologies should be operated at the early stages. This paper proposes an integrated method for commercialization potential evaluation of emerging technologies by using technology future analysis. The proposed integrated method combined the subjective judgment and objective perspectives, which is to make the primary selection of large amount of emerging technology options using the tools for the subjective judgment, such as, nominal group analysis; ANP, and the stakeholder analysis; then, to provide reasoning via objective facts for emerging technologies selected at the primary stage using the tools for the objective judgment, such as, bibliometrics analysis and patent analysis. The overall framework and detailed procedures are illustrated at last.

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