Resident Population Prediction Based on Cohort-Component Method

Resident population prediction is very important to sustainable urban construction. Population forecasts by age group and sex can be derived through cohort-component method. This method requires at least two consecutive censuses data, but in this paper we will address the problem of how to apply this method to predict population with only one census data. Furthermore, there are no firsthand materials about fertility rate, and the form of migration rate is not suitable for the cohort-component model directly. Under these circumstances, we have to do some processing to those data in order to better model the method. It is proved that this method performs well in population prediction.