Multiple testing of treatment‐effect‐modifying biomarkers in a randomized clinical trial with a survival endpoint

The recent revolution in genomics and the advent of targeted therapies have increased interest in biomarker‐defined subgroups of patients who respond to therapy or exhibit specific toxicities. Such biomarker‐defined subgroups are also being investigated for non‐targeted therapies (e.g. chemotherapy and statins). However, even when the targeting pathway has been identified, a broadly available test to identify the appropriate subgroup will rarely exist prior to the launch of the pivotal phase III trial.

[1]  M. Kendall Statistical Methods for Research Workers , 1937, Nature.

[2]  Donald Fraser,et al.  Randomization Tests for a Multivariate Two-Sample Problem , 1958 .

[3]  R. Pegoraro,et al.  Estrogen and progesterone receptors in breast cancer among women of different racial groups. , 1986, Cancer research.

[4]  M. Schumacher,et al.  The impact of heterogeneity on the comparison of survival times. , 1987, Statistics in medicine.

[5]  J. Wittes,et al.  Analysis and interpretation of treatment effects in subgroups of patients in randomized clinical trials. , 1991, JAMA.

[6]  Stephen L. George,et al.  Sample size requirements and length of study for testing interaction in a 1 × k factorial design when time-to-failure is the outcome , 1993 .

[7]  R. Gelber,et al.  Subsets within the chemotherapy overview. International Breast Cancer Study Group. , 1998, Lancet.

[8]  Mike Clarke,et al.  Polychemotherapy for early breast cancer: an overview of the randomised trials , 1998, The Lancet.

[9]  R. Gelber,et al.  Subsets within the chemotherapy overview , 1998, The Lancet.

[10]  Kurt Hornik,et al.  On the generation of correlated artificial binary data , 1998 .

[11]  D. DeMets,et al.  Biomarkers and surrogate endpoints: Preferred definitions and conceptual framework , 2001, Clinical pharmacology and therapeutics.

[12]  R F Potthoff,et al.  Detecting treatment-by-centre interaction in multi-centre clinical trials. , 2001, Statistics in medicine.

[13]  D. Louis,et al.  Influence of unrecognized molecular heterogeneity on randomized clinical trials. , 2002, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[14]  K. Carroll,et al.  On the use and utility of the Weibull model in the analysis of survival data. , 2003, Controlled clinical trials.

[15]  M. Pencina,et al.  Overall C as a measure of discrimination in survival analysis: model specific population value and confidence interval estimation , 2004, Statistics in medicine.

[16]  Edison T Liu,et al.  Microarrays and clinical investigations. , 2004, The New England journal of medicine.

[17]  Mark R. Green,et al.  Targeting targeted therapy. , 2004, The New England journal of medicine.

[18]  M. Gonen,et al.  Concordance probability and discriminatory power in proportional hazards regression , 2005 .

[19]  R. Arriagada,et al.  Results of two randomized trials evaluating adjuvant anthracycline-based chemotherapy in 1 146 patients with early breast cancer , 2005, Acta oncologica.

[20]  Patrick Royston,et al.  The design of simulation studies in medical statistics , 2006, Statistics in medicine.

[21]  R. Diasio,et al.  Thymidine phosphorylase expression is associated with response to capecitabine plus irinotecan in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. , 2006, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[22]  S. Michiels,et al.  Does triple-negative phenotype accurately identify basal-like tumour? An immunohistochemical analysis based on 143 'triple-negative' breast cancers. , 2007, Annals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology.

[23]  J. Siegel Developing targeted therapy , 2007, Clinical trials.

[24]  R. Arriagada,et al.  Breast cancer molecular subclassification and estrogen receptor expression to predict efficacy of adjuvant anthracyclines-based chemotherapy: a biomarker study from two randomized trials. , 2007, Annals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology.

[25]  R. Simon,et al.  New challenges for 21st century clinical trials , 2007, Clinical trials.

[26]  Sue-Jane Wang,et al.  Approaches to evaluation of treatment effect in randomized clinical trials with genomic subset , 2007, Pharmaceutical statistics.

[27]  R. Schilsky Target practice: oncology drug development in the era of genomic medicine , 2007, Clinical trials.

[28]  L. Pusztai,et al.  Expression patterns and predictive value of phosphorylated AKT in early-stage breast cancer. , 2008, Annals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology.

[29]  R. Peto,et al.  Adjuvant chemotherapy in oestrogen-receptor-poor breast cancer: patient-level meta-analysis of randomised trials. , 2008, Lancet.

[30]  Carl Morrison,et al.  Eicosanoid modulation in advanced lung cancer: cyclooxygenase-2 expression is a positive predictive factor for celecoxib + chemotherapy--Cancer and Leukemia Group B Trial 30203. , 2008, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[31]  Daniel J. Freeman,et al.  Wild-type KRAS is required for panitumumab efficacy in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. , 2008, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[32]  Stephen L George,et al.  Statistical Issues in Translational Cancer Research , 2008, Clinical Cancer Research.

[33]  M. Sughayer,et al.  Prevalence of hormone receptors and HER2/neu in breast cancer cases in Jordan , 2008, Pathology & Oncology Research.

[34]  M. Buyse,et al.  Reformulating the hazard ratio to enhance communication with clinical investigators , 2008, Clinical trials.

[35]  Richard Simon,et al.  The Use of Genomics in Clinical Trial Design , 2008, Clinical Cancer Research.

[36]  Melinda H. McCann,et al.  Reformulating the hazard ratio to enhance communication with clinical investigators , 2008, Clinical trials.

[37]  T. Mok,et al.  Gefitinib or carboplatin-paclitaxel in pulmonary adenocarcinoma. , 2009, The New England journal of medicine.

[38]  Eugene S. Edgington,et al.  Randomization Tests , 2011, International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science.