Gittins Indices and Oil Exploration

SUMMARY An earlier study by Benkherouf and Bather considered the question of when the results of oil exploration in a single area were sufficiently discouraging to render it optimal to stop drilling altogether. This stopping problem is now considerably elaborated by the inclusion of a choice between several areas in which to explore. Our oil exploration problem is modelled as a Bayesian sequential decision problem with a Markovian structure. Optimal drilling strategies are determined by Gittins indices. These indices also play an important part in the evaluation of heuristics.