Thermal Limits to Salmonid Distributions in the Rocky Mountain Region and Potential Habitat Loss Due to Global Warming: A Geographic Information System (GIS) Approach

Abstract The present distribution of salmonid fishes in Wyoming streams was found to be limited to regions where mean July air temperatures did not exceed 22°C. Much of the present salmonid habitat in streams is predicted to be lost if climatic warming occurs. For increases of 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5°C in mean July air temperature, the geographic area of Wyoming containing suitable salmonid habitat would be reduced by 16.2, 29.1, 38.5, 53.3, or 68.0%, respectively. This loss of geographic range would correspond to reductions of 7.5, 13.6, 21.0, 31.4, or 43.3% in the length of streams having suitable salmonid habitat. In the Rocky Mountain region, increases of 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5°C in mean July air temperature would reduce the geographic area containing suitable salmonid habitat by 16.8, 35.6, 49.8, 62.0, or 71.8%, respectively. As warming proceeds, salmonid populations would be forced into increasingly higher elevations and would become fragmented as suitable habitat for coldwater fish becomes separated from main r...