Application of particle filter to concrete freeze-thaw prognosis

Subject to many factors such as material properties, load, chloride ion, carbonization, abrasion, alkali aggregate reaction, test error and so on, the freeze-thaw degradation process is of high uncertainties, which means great difficulty in modeling and engineering application. To eliminate the influence of uncertainties and improve prediction accuracy, a particle filter-based concrete freeze-thaw life preditcon method is proposed in this paper. It takes the freeze-thaw failure of concrete pavement in rainy and snowy as the research background, and builds the evolution equation of freeze-thaw degradation process based on relative dynamic modulus of elasticity (RDME) under freeze-thaw cycles. Then, using ultrasonic waves as a detection method, the observation equation is built by the relationship between ultrasonic flight-time and RDME. Employing the evolution and observation equation, a state space model describing the degradation process of concrete freeze-thaw is set up to predict the remaining useful life of the concrete based on standard PF. Freeze-thaw tests of concrete with compressive strength grade C50 in 3% chloride solution show that the particle filter-based life prediction method can eliminate the influence of uncertainty and achieve higher life prediction accuracy than traditional deterministic prediction method. The results can provide data support for the construction of expressways, airport pavements, offshore and coastal projects, as well as other construction projects, which have important application value and economic benefits for improving the design, extending the service life and enhancing the maintenance of concrete structures.

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