Space Weather and Interactions with Spacecraft 6. Global Space Weather Modelling 6.1. What Is Space Weather Modelling?

Improved modelling is essential both for engineering solutions to avoid space weather damage and for all types of forecasting: Whether analysing space environment conditions that led to a space weather event or making a forecast, we need models which can use the relatively sparse observations as input and produce a reliable global map of charged particles and electromagnetic fields in the geospace region of interest. A "grand unified" model encompassing the Sun, the solar wind, the magneto-sphere, the ionosphere, and the atmosphere, is probably beyond our horizons. However, for all these regions we already now have a large number of different models, the most advanced of which also address the coupling between adjacent domains. Longer-term (more than ~1 hour) forecasting requires good models for the solar activity. Forecasts extending to 1–2 days utilise models of generation and of solar flares and coronal mass ejections, their propagation through the interplanetary medium, and their interaction with the magnetosphere. The solar wind-magnetosphere interaction is one of the key issues in the magnetospheric dynamics and simultaneously one of the most difficult problems in STP. In order to protect technological systems against space weather events, warning systems and models of trapped radiation during enhanced magnetospheric activity are needed. Theoretical and/or empirical models are needed in advance for spacecraft design and mission planning, whereas operational purposes require models running in real time utilising real-time data input. Modelling of the electromagnetic coupling to the auroral ionosphere is needed for avoiding communication problems and for warning of the induced current effects on the ground systems. Coupling to the neutral atmosphere is an important issue, as enhanced energetic particle precipitation during solar activity heats the atmosphere, leading to order of magnitude increase of atmospheric drag, which may cause problems for low-altitude satellites or for the re-entry of manned spacecraft. Furthermore, recent studies have shown that the energetic particles precipitating in the Earth's upper atmosphere may change the atmospheric chemistry and thus influence the ozone content shielding the Earth's surface from UV radiation. Many of these effects are also functions of the long-term variability in the Sun, the 11-year (or actually 22-year) solar cycle, thus belonging both to the realm of space climatology and space weather. In order to assess the risk to either space-borne or ground-based technologies, we need models for the effects of ground-induced current loops in power grids or gas pipe lines, models for determining how the …

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