The numerical context for setting national casualty reduction targets

The Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions announced in October 1997 that it intended to set a casualty reduction target for Great Britain for the year 2010, building upon the experience of the previous target for 2000. A method has been developed to investigate the likely number of casualties in 2010 as part of the preparation for the new target, and this report describes the method. The method focuses upon trends in the national casualty data since 1983, supplemented with information about changes in the volume of travel by different types of road user. The casualty trends are related where possible to the road safety measures that were introduced over this period. Casualty forecasts for 2010 are then prepared in two stages: the trends are extrapolated to 2010 to give 'baseline' forecasts, which are then combined with assessments of the effects of new road safety measures that might be introduced between now and 2010. The future number of casualties will also depend upon the volume of travel by the various modes. There are, however, currently no comprehensive forecasts that take into account the Government's strategy for reducing car dependency as set out in its 1998 Integrated Transport White Paper. Casualty forecasts have therefore been made for a variety of transport scenarios. (A)