Statistical analysis and simulation of design models evolution

Tools, algorithms and methods in the context of Model-Driven Engineering (MDE) have to be assessed, evaluated and tested with regard to different aspects such as correctness, quality, scalability and efficiency. Unfortunately, appropriate test models are scarcely available and those which are accessible often lack desired properties. Therefore, one needs to resort to artificially generated test models in practice. Many services and features of model versioning systems are motivated from the collaborative development paradigm. Testing such services does not require single models, but rather pairs of models, one being derived from the other one by applying a known sequence of edit steps. The edit operations used to modify the models should be the same as in usual development environments, e.g. adding, deleting and changing of model elements in visual model editors. Existing model generators are motivated from the testing of model transformation engines, they do not consider the true nature of evolution in which models are evolved through iterative editing steps. They provide no or very little control over the generation process and they can generate only single models rather than model histories. Moreover, the generation of stochastic and other properties of interest also are not supported in the existing approaches. Furthermore, blindly generating models through random application of edit operations does not yield useful models, since the generated models are not (stochastically) realistic and do not reflect true properties of evolution in real software systems. Unfortunately, little is known about how models of real software systems evolve over time, what are the properties and characteristics of evolution, how one can mathematically formulate the evolution and simulate it. To address the previous problems, we introduce a new general approach which facilitates generating (stochastically) realistic test models for model differencing tools and tools for analyzing model histories. We propose a model generator which addresses the above deficiencies and generates or modifies models by applying proper edit operations. Fine control mechanisms for the generation process are devised and the generator supports stochastic and other properties of interest in the generated models. It also can generate histories, i.e. related sequences, of models. Moreover, in our approach we provide a methodological framework for capturing, mathematically representing and simulating the evolution of real design models. The proposed framework is able to capture the evolution in terms of edit operations applied between revisions. Mathematically, the representation of evolution is based on different statistical distributions as well as different time series models. Forecasting, simulation and generation of stochastically