Measured lightning data-based transmission line failure probability evaluation method

The invention discloses a measured lightning data-based transmission line failure probability evaluation method, and belongs to the technical field of power systems and automation thereof. The method comprises the following two steps of: (1) identifying a lightning occurrence range within a certain time period according to the measured lightning data of lightning occurrence time, occurrence positions, strength and the like which are measured, and predicting a lightning occurrence region in the next time step length and credibility thereof; and (2) calculating the lightning failure probability of each line by using a lightning failure probability formula according to real-time parameters of a line length in the predicted lightning occurrence region, the area of the predicted lighting occurrence region, thunderbolt density and the like. By the method, the line failure probability can be dynamically and adaptively evaluated according to changes in external weather conditions, so that the risks of lightning disasters can be early warned for the system; and the method is combined with a wide-area measurement analysis protection control system, so that the capability of the power system in withstanding the lightning disasters can be improved.