Assessment of Effects Based Operations Using Temporal Logic

This paper presents an application of temporal logic for assessment and analysis of courses of action (COA) in a Timed Influence Net (TIN) model for conducting Effects-Based Operations (EBO). The current practice in courses of action analysis looks at the impacts of actions on the likelihood of the desired effects over a period of time. The impact of time, however, is not studied explicitly. This paper illustrates the use of a point-interval temporal logic (PITL) for evaluating a COA’s impact on desired objectives and undesired consequences both in terms of causal influences and timing of actions. The temporal formalism is also shown to run a what-if analysis for a better understanding of the temporal relationships between certain actions that may result in a desired effect at a particular time instant. The analysis, therefore, can be used for fine-tuning selected COAs for generating better plans. We return to the analysis of COAs that was reported in the 6 ICCRTS (Wagenhals, et al., 2001) to illustrate the use of this new technology. The hypothetical scenario that involves coalition operations to support Humanitarian Assistance to Indonesia is used for this illustration.