The role of renewables in increasing Turkey's self-sufficiency in electrical energy

Abstract Imported fossil fuels dominate Turkey's total primary energy supply and this situation poses a significant barrier to the country's self-sufficiency. However, Turkey can increase its self-sufficiency by tapping into its rich but under-utilized potential of renewable energy sources (RES). Looking into the data from the period between 1980 and 2014, this study scrutinizes Turkey's self-sufficiency in total primary energy generation and electricity generation and changes that could occur depending on energy policy goals. Also, this study discusses the implications of the increasing utilization of coal reserves in relation to the escalating concerns about climate change. Given the important role of RES in ensuring self-sufficiency, Turkey's rate of utilization of its RES and the possibility of its realizing the Vision 2023 energy targets have been evaluated. The utilization and attainment rates based on the country's 2023 energy targets for all RES reveal that Turkey is far behind the intended progress rate regarding the utilization of RES, except for hydro and geothermal. Our analysis shows that Turkey's self-sufficiency in total primary energy generation and in electricity generation has been deteriorating in the last decades. The rate of self-sufficiency was %54.42 in 1980. However, by 2014 this rate had gone down to %25.05. Turkey's self-sufficiency rate in electricity generation dropped from 77% in 1980 to 37% in 2014. The main reasons for this change are the high energy demand, increasing reliance on imported natural gas and hard coal, and low utilization of RES. Therefore, in order to achieve Vision 2023 RES targets and ensure self-sufficiency in the long run, we suggest the introduction of new energy policy instruments for RES.