A “sufficient” condition combination for rapid intensifications of tropical cyclones

[1] Rapid Intensifications (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) provide major error sources in the challenging task of TC intensity forecasting. There are many factors that affect the RI processes of TCs, and identifying the combination of conditions most favorable to RI development is very time consuming when using traditional statistical data analysis methods. Data mining techniques are implemented to the data for SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme), an operational hurricane intensity forecasting model, to identify the “optimal” RI condition combinations when the number of affecting factors is given. One such combination (high latitude, low longitude, the TC being in an intensification phase, an initial intensity far away from the maximum potential intensity, high steering layer value, and low relative eddy flux convergence) gives such a high RI probability that the combination can be considered as a sufficient condition for RI, which almost guarantees that an RI will take place.

[1]  J. Molinari,et al.  External Influences on Hurricane Intensity. Part I: Outflow Layer Eddy Angular Momentum Fluxes. , 1989 .

[2]  C. Holliday,et al.  Climatological Characteristics of Rapidly Intensifying Typhoons , 1979 .

[3]  Ruixin Yang,et al.  Improved associated conditions in rapid intensifications of tropical cyclones , 2007 .

[4]  Tong Zhu,et al.  Numerical Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part I: Eyewall Evolution and Intensity Changes , 2004 .

[5]  Richard M. Hodur,et al.  The Interaction between Hurricane Opal (1995) and a Warm Core Ring in the Gulf of Mexico , 2000 .

[6]  Mark DeMaria,et al.  An Updated Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins , 1999 .

[7]  Jong‐Jin Baik,et al.  Upper-level eddy angular momentum fluxes and tropical cyclone intensity change , 1993 .

[8]  Wen-Chau Lee,et al.  Rapid intensification, eyewall contraction, and breakdown of Hurricane Charley (2004) near landfall , 2007 .

[9]  Gustavo Goni,et al.  Effects of a Warm Oceanic Feature on Hurricane Opal , 2000 .

[10]  W. M. Gray,et al.  GLOBAL VIEW OF THE ORIGIN OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCES AND STORMS , 1968 .

[11]  Chun‐Chieh Wu,et al.  Environmental Dynamical Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensity—An Observational Study , 2006 .

[12]  John A. Knaff,et al.  Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) , 2005 .

[13]  P. Black,et al.  Hurricane Andrew in Florida: Dynamics of a Disaster , 1996 .

[14]  J. Molinari,et al.  External Influences on Hurricane Intensity. Part II: Vertical Structure and Response of the Hurricane Vortex , 1990 .

[15]  E. Ritchie,et al.  Effects of Environmental Flow upon Tropical Cyclone Structure , 1999 .

[16]  Thomas A. Jones,et al.  The environmental and inner-core conditions governing the intensity of Hurricane Erin (2001) , 2007 .

[17]  R. T. Merrill Environmental Influences on Hurricane Intensification , 1988 .

[18]  Chun‐Chieh Wu,et al.  The Effect of the Ocean Eddy on Tropical Cyclone Intensity , 2007 .

[19]  Michael L. Black,et al.  Probing Hurricanes with Stable Isotopes of Rain and Water Vapor , 2003 .

[20]  Tomasz Imielinski,et al.  Mining association rules between sets of items in large databases , 1993, SIGMOD Conference.

[21]  Elizabeth A. Ritchie,et al.  Effects of Vertical Wind Shear on the Intensity and Structure of Numerically Simulated Hurricanes , 2001 .

[22]  An Observational Study of Environmental Dynamical Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the Atlantic , 2008 .

[23]  A Numerical Study of the Effect of Dissipative Heating on Tropical Cyclone Intensity , 2007 .

[24]  Bin Wang,et al.  Large-Scale Flow Patterns and Their Influence on the Intensification Rates of Western North Pacific Tropical Storms* , 2007 .

[25]  Mark DeMaria,et al.  A Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic Basin , 1994 .

[26]  Peter G. Black,et al.  Environmental Influences on the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Opal (1995) over the Gulf of Mexico , 2000 .

[27]  Yong Wang,et al.  An Explicit Simulation of Tropical Cyclones with a Triply Nested Movable Mesh Primitive Equation Model: TCM3. Part II: Model Refinements and Sensitivity to Cloud Microphysics Parameterization* , 2002 .

[28]  Hugh E. Willoughby,et al.  Concentric Eye Walls, Secondary Wind Maxima, and The Evolution of the Hurricane vortex , 1982 .

[29]  Mark DeMaria,et al.  Large-Scale Characteristics of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin , 2003 .

[30]  Mark DeMaria,et al.  The Effect of Vertical Shear on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change , 1996 .