A FRAGILITY INFORMATION-CONTAINED METHOD TO EVALUATE SEISMIC RISK CONSIDERING OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY OF THE WHOLE POTENTIAL EARTHQUAKES

構造物の地震リスク（年損傷確率）を評価する場合，対象地点の地震ハザード曲線と，構造物のフラジリティー（脆弱性）曲線を用いて損傷確率を評価する方法が多く用いられてきた．本論文では，対象地点周辺で想定され得る全ての地震のマグニチュードや距離を考慮しつつ，地震ハザード曲線を用いず直接的に構造物の年損傷確率を評価する方法を提案する．同時に従来の地震ハザード再分解方法との関連を整理する．次に仮想的な地震ハザードモデルを想定して，質点系モデルと滑動モデルを対象に提案方法を適用する数値計算により，妥当性の検討を行う．提案方法は対象構造物モデルのフラジリティー計算を内在しており，最大応答，エネルギー両方の破壊規範に適用することが可能であり，構造物の年損傷確率をより正確に評価することが可能である．

[1]  M. K. Ravindra,et al.  Seismic fragilities for nuclear power plant risk studies , 1984 .

[2]  R. Romeo,et al.  Probabilistic versus deterministic seismic hazard analysis: an integrated approach for siting problems , 2000 .

[3]  E. Rosenblueth.  Point estimates for probability moments. , 1975, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[4]  Alan L. Kafka,et al.  A Monte Carlo approach to seismic hazard analysis , 1999 .

[5]  R. Mcguire.  Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and design earthquakes: Closing the loop , 1995, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[6]  Arthur Frankel,et al.  Development of Maximum Considered Earthquake Ground Motion Maps , 2000 .

[7]  N. Newmark.  Effects of Earthquakes on Dams and Embankments , 1965 .

[8]  T. Takeda,et al.  Reinforced Concrete response to simulated earthquakes , 1970 .

[9]  Walter H. F. Smith,et al.  New, improved version of generic mapping tools released , 1998 .

[10]  A. Der Kiureghian,et al.  A fault-rupture model for seismic risk analysis , 1977 .

[11]  Hiroyuki Kameda,et al.  PROBABILISTIC SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES , 1997 .

[12]  S. Harmsen,et al.  Deaggregation of probabilistic ground motions in the central and eastern United States , 1999 .

[13]  B. Gutenberg,et al.  Frequency of Earthquakes in California , 1944, Nature.

[14]  N. Chokshi,et al.  Determination of controlling earthquakes from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for nuclear reactor sites , 1995 .

[15]  C. Cornell,et al.  Disaggregation of seismic hazard , 1999 .

[16]  Randall W. Jibson,et al.  A Method for Producing Digital Probabilistic Seismic Landslide Hazard Maps: An Example from the Los Angeles, California, Area , 1998 .

[17]  D. Keefer,et al.  Dynamic analysis of a slope failure from the 6 August 1979 Coyote Lake, California, earthquake , 1983 .

[18]  Y. Matsushima,et al.  INELASTIC RANDOM SEISMIC RESPONSE AND RELIABILITY OF DUCTILE FRAMES FILLED WITH BRITTLE ELEMENTS , 1999 .